Since the era of the Republic, the Russians have maintained deep intelligence ties with the Taliban. They gave the group money, helped with weapons, and in many cases provided the Taliban with intelligence advice. In 2017, Russia created the “Moscow Format” to organize these relations within a political framework and as part of a diplomatic process, providing a more formal and regional platform for engagement with the Taliban.
Russia is now pursuing a systematic, multidimensional strategy across political, diplomatic, security, economic, and geopolitical arenas. On one hand, it is trying to neutralize regional threats through soft instruments such as economic projects, tactical engagement, and intelligence maneuvering. On the other hand, it is seeking to minimize the possibility of the United States returning to the region. In this context, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, as a potential security vacuum, holds special importance in Moscow’s calculations. In other words, Russia aims to advance the removal of American influence from the region by limiting avenues for Western influence, and to reduce the likelihood of a return of strategic American presence and influence as far as possible.
Alongside this, another important shift has taken place in Russia’s approach to Afghanistan and its neighboring areas. In 2023, as part of its foreign policy, Russia paid particular attention to the question of Eurasia. Eurasianism, whose roots go back to the 1920s, took on a new geopolitical formulation after the collapse of the Soviet Union and gradually gained a more significant place in Russia’s strategic thinking. This sphere encompasses Central Asia, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Iran, and parts of Asia, and Afghanistan is also considered in the calculations of this geopolitical space as an important periphery that is sensitive from a security standpoint. The main objectives of this orientation are to strengthen Russian influence in the Eurasian space, to establish a multipolar order, and to limit the geopolitical superiority of the United States and its allies.
On a broader level, this approach can be assessed as part of Russia’s effort to counter what it regards as American geopolitical hegemonism and Europe’s strategic convergence with Washington. From Moscow’s perspective, the expansion of Western influence in the Eurasian space and the continuation of transatlantic alignment between the United States and Europe, particularly within the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), could shift the balance of power to Russia’s detriment. For this reason, the Kremlin is seeking to prevent the consolidation of Western strategic superiority in this sensitive geography by strengthening regional ties, establishing independent security and economic mechanisms, and expanding cooperation with neighboring countries.
Within the same framework, on March 31, 2023, Vladimir Putin approved the “Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.” In this document, Russia presents itself as a great Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power and emphasizes strengthening Eurasian cooperation, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the formation of a multipolar order. The document shows that Russia’s view of its surrounding space is not limited merely to bilateral relations with neighboring countries, but is part of a broader plan to redefine Russia’s position in the international system and to counter Western geopolitical superiority.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine and Russia’s extensive preoccupation on that front have heightened serious concerns about the possible opening of a security front in the south, one in which Afghanistan could become a sensitive point. Moscow’s primary concern is that Afghanistan’s territory could become a launchpad for transnational terrorism, and that the first consequences of such a situation would target Russia’s security backyard, namely Central Asia. From this perspective, threats emanating from Afghanistan are not merely an internal matter or one concerning neighboring countries, but could become a broader challenge to Russia’s regional security and its strategic interests in Eurasia.
Under current conditions, the crisis stemming from tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan, the involvement and growing attention of India and Israel, and the interest of Arab countries and Türkiye in Afghanistan have made Russia more interested than before in a presence on the Afghan scene. Moscow is trying to confront the new challenges and prevent the crisis from widening through diplomatic engagement, security contacts, and regional initiatives. The visits of Russian officials to Kabul at the intelligence and diplomatic levels, on the one hand, signal Moscow’s effort to make up for the failures of earlier processes, including the Moscow meeting, and to pursue new diplomatic paths, and on the other hand, are tied to the requirements of Russia’s Eurasian strategy, a strategy that requires Moscow not to remain indifferent to developments in Afghanistan.
Russia is well aware of what policies the Taliban are pursuing in Afghanistan and how the country is at risk of becoming a security vacuum, one that, if neglected, could impose a deeper crisis on the region. The issue becomes more complicated when various actors, with different goals and motivations, seek to establish influence in Afghanistan, and the Taliban, to meet their financial, political, and security needs, enter into cooperation with various parties. Under such conditions, any actor that offers financial resources or other incentives to win the Taliban’s cooperation may become a potential partner of the group, while at the same time creating the ground for new security challenges. For this reason, drawing on past experience, Russia is trying to manage the crisis through soft diplomatic channels and by offering limited economic and financial incentives, and to create the space needed to control regional tensions.
Russia’s dual and at times contradictory view of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan is also an important part of this equation. On one hand, Moscow accepts the Taliban as an undeniable reality on the Afghan scene and continues to engage with the group. On the other hand, it is concerned about the security consequences of the presence of transnational terrorist groups in the country and the possibility of threats spilling over into Central Asia. This dual approach shows that Russia uses a strategy of ambiguity toward Afghanistan, both for political and security exploitation, and also seeks to keep the Central Asian countries within the orbit of its security cooperation.
In addition, by managing this situation, Moscow is trying to gain the necessary readiness for a new phase of competition with the West, a phase that may take on broader dimensions after the end of the war in Ukraine and a change in the configuration of powers. In such a outlook, Afghanistan is not only a security issue for Russia, but is part of the arena of geopolitical competition between Moscow and the West. Creating concern about Afghanistan’s security threats among the Central Asian countries, alongside emphasizing the necessity of cooperation with Russia, could be one of Moscow’s tactics for preserving and strengthening its presence in the region. However, the effectiveness of this approach depends on Russia’s ability to contain the threats and to strike a balance among its security, economic, and geopolitical interests.
Finally, Russia’s strategy toward Afghanistan cannot be limited merely to cooperation with the Taliban or concern about terrorism. This strategy encompasses a set of security, diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical calculations, the aim of which is to preserve Russian influence in Eurasia, limit the presence and influence of the West, and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a platform for threatening regional security. Nevertheless, engagement with the Taliban alone is no guarantee of containing security threats and, in the absence of effective oversight mechanisms, could even create new complications. For this reason, the central question is whether Russia can strike a balance between managing the Afghanistan crisis and exploiting it geopolitically, or whether the continuation of the policy of ambiguity will ultimately pave the way for the continuation of geopolitical rivalries and increased security uncertainty in this country and the region.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
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