Space investment to top US$100 billion in 2026 after SpaceX IPO

Investment in the space economy is on track to exceed US$100 billion for the first time ever in a given year in 2026, fuelled by SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering, defence spending and space infrastructure.

The prediction stems from a new analysis of third quarter spending from Space Capital, an investment firm. On top of quantifying the sheer amount of investment, the report also notes that more space companies are reaching unicorn status than ever before.

“We all thought that 2021 was this crazy hot market,” Chad Anderson, chief executive of Space Capital, said, referring to the blank-check deal frenzy of the time. “It looks like a blip compared to what’s happening now.”

To explain the surge, all roads lead back to SpaceX.

Anderson said SpaceX’s record-setting IPO this summer may have led investors to revalue other space companies, viewing them as more essential than they might have before.

However, SpaceX is having an impact beyond its IPO. The company’s intention to sunset its Falcon 9 workhorse in the years ahead creates the threat of a rocket shortage that is fuelling investments in SpaceX alternatives.

Launch startup Stoke Space Technologies, Inc., for instance, recently announced that it had raised US$1 billion to fuel development of a larger variant of its reusable Nova rocket. SpaceX’s largest rival, Blue Origin LLC, also raised at least US$10 billion in its first external fundraising in the company’s 26-year history.

“This is the best thing to happen to the launch industry in a decade,” Anderson said. “This is how the second, third and fourth position companies come about. The scarcity is driving the market to adopt additional solutions.”

Space Capital’s report also notes that the investment is being bolstered by high demand for space assets from the United States government’s defence department, as well as from sovereign nations looking for their own satellite networks and other space infrastructure to fuel economic growth.

However, the free-flowing money does carry risk for companies. Firms are raising money at incredibly high valuations that don’t often add up, Anderson says, especially if they’ve built their business models around an uncertain variable. For instance, one big risk for the space industry now is being too reliant on SpaceX.

“There are some companies getting funded today that, for example, require SpaceX’s Starship to build their business and launch their satellites, and that’s a big risk,” Anderson said. “I don’t know when they’re going to make that capability available.”