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It’s the third Saturday in October, which means only one thing in the South: Alabama vs. Tennessee.
The two SEC powers and College Football Playoff hopefuls bring identical 5-1 records into this clash in Knoxville, but the perception around the two camps is quite different.
While most college football punters are waiting for the bottom to fall out on Tennessee, Alabama is considered one of the favorites to win the national championship.
Thus, it’s no shock to see the Crimson Tide laying 8.5 points at Neyland Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Alabama vs. Tennessee odds, prediction
Keelon Russell and the Crimson Tide were handed their first loss of the season by Georgia in Week 6, but it was hardly a poor showing by Alabama.
The stats suggest that the Bulldogs were deserving winners, but hanging with the No. 1 team in the country is an impressive feat, and Alabama seems to be improving with each passing Saturday.
The Tide’s offense has been especially effective, thanks to Russell.
The first-year starter was held in check by Georgia, but he’s otherwise been stupendous, completing 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,599 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Tennessee defense has posted some strong numbers overall this season, but they’ve got no margin for error thanks to an offense with a limited ceiling, no matter who is staring under center.
The Alabama defense was found wanting at times against Georgia last week, but Tennessee isn’t likely to move the ball as efficiently as the Bulldogs, who boast the nation’s fourth-best offense, according to SP+.
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Instead, Tennessee will need to rely on its defense to contain Russell and Tide, and keep them to an attainable number. That seems like a big ask against an offense that just clipped at 5.8 yards per play against Georgia.
Alabama has the horses to run away with this one, and I am skeptical Tennessee can keep pace.
The Play: Alabama -8.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.