The people building advanced AI think it will take over most of their jobs within a few years. The rest of the country is considerably less convinced.
Anthropic staff expect AI to do 75% of their work by 2030. US workers put that figure at 28%. That is a big disagreement about the same technology, and only one side writes the code.
The findings come from Anthropic’s report, “The AI Expectations Gap,” published on October 16, 2026. It compares how the company’s own employees see AI’s trajectory with how the general public sees it.
The numbers behind the gap
Anthropic surveyed 1,334 of its staff members internally in August 2026. It then set their answers against responses from US adults.
The headline split is the 75% versus 28% figure on how much work AI will handle by 2030. More than half of Anthropic employees expect at least 80% of their tasks to be automated. Among the broader US workforce, just 5% share that view.
Some 91% of Anthropic staff believe AI will produce a Nobel-level discovery by 2030. Only 39% of US adults agree.
Anthropic staff predict US unemployment will exceed 12% by 2030. The general public forecasts something near 8%.
On growth, the median expectation among Anthropic employees is 17.1% GDP growth for 2030. US adults put the median at 5.4%.
Among US adults who use AI at work, 26% say AI help lets them finish tasks in 25% of the usual time. Among Anthropic staff, that share is 59%.
Inside the building
Internally, AI agents were reported to have worked six times the hours of human employees by August 2026. The share of junior technical hires at Anthropic reportedly fell from 27% to 9%. Separately, AI is currently managing 51% of frontier model-building tasks, with forecasts suggesting this will escalate to 80% by the end of 2027 and 95% by 2030.
What this means
For policymakers, the unemployment gap is the one that stands out. A forecast above 12% is a very different planning scenario from one near 8%.
The 17.1% versus 5.4% growth split captures the tension neatly. One number describes a historic economic boom. The other describes a solid but recognizable economy.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.