20h05 ▪ 5 min read ▪ by Luc Jose A.
Summarize this article with:
Can bitcoin reach 100000 dollars before the end of 2026? Bitwise considers this scenario still possible thanks to institutional demand, while LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars in the face of the return of inflation and rate hike risks.
In brief
- Bitwise believes that bitcoin could exceed 100000 dollars before the end of 2026.
- Institutional purchases and ETFs support the upside prospects for Bitcoin.
- LO forecasts a price between 85000 and 95000 dollars by the end of December.
- US inflation and the risk of new Fed rate hikes are slowing the market.
- Sustained crossing of 90000 dollars could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars.
Arguments supporting bitcoin at 100000 dollars
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, maintains a positive view despite the pullback of bitcoin around 82000 dollars. He believes that several underlying factors can support the market in the last weeks of 2026.
The analyst summarizes his scenario in a cautious statement :
We believe bitcoin will end the year higher, potentially above 100000 dollars.
This projection is based on several drivers :
- Purchases made by institutional investors via ETF ;
- Accumulation of bitcoins by some companies ;
- Search for rare assets in the face of inflation ;
- Increase in public debt ;
- Progressive improvement of the US regulatory framework.
Cryptocurrency investment products have recorded about 11.1 billion dollars in inflows since mid-July, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. US spot bitcoin ETFs would have received nearly 6 billion dollars in the third quarter, including about 3.5 billion dollars in August.
This demand can reduce the amount of bitcoin available on the market. However, it does not guarantee an immediate rise. Butterfill points out that purchases have slowed and a real rebound will require regular institutional inflows.
A move from 82000 to 100000 dollars would represent an increase of close to 22%. Such a move remains possible in a volatile market, but it requires a significant improvement in the financial climate before December 31.
US inflation weakens the bullish scenario
LO takes a more reserved view. Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at the company, rather expects bitcoin to evolve between 85000 and 95000 dollars until the end of the year.
This caution is mainly explained by the latest US data. The consumer price index rose by 0.6% in September compared to August and by 3.7% year on year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% over one month and by 2.6% year on year.
The rise in gasoline played a major role. This component jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in prices. These figures reinforced fears of a new tightening of US monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve had already raised its key rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. A new hike would make risk-free investments more remunerative and reduce the liquidity available for volatile assets like bitcoin.
According to McCarthy, a return of BTC towards 100000 dollars would require a drop in oil prices, a slowdown in inflation, and a change in expectations regarding the Fed. The market would notably have to abandon the hypothesis of a rate hike in December in favor of a pause.
The 90000 dollar threshold could revive the market
Derivatives offer a third scenario. Luca Invernizzi, trader at Laser Digital, a Nomura subsidiary, believes that the recent retreat removed some of the most fragile leveraged positions. This purge could make the market more stable if buyers return.
The 90000 dollar level now constitutes an important technical zone. Sustained crossing could force traders betting on a decline to buy back bitcoin to close their positions. These forced purchases could accelerate the rebound towards 100000 dollars.
Conversely, the absence of new flows into ETFs and persistent inflation would limit this potential. Investors will therefore watch the next Fed decisions, energy prices, and institutional inflows.
The forecasts of Bitwise and LO are not certainties. They describe two trajectories that depend primarily on the macroeconomic context. Before aiming for 100000 dollars, bitcoin must first retake 90000 dollars and maintain this level despite rate pressure.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.