By winning the first two games of the National League Championship Series, the Brewers guaranteed they could be the only team to clinch a World Series berth at Dodger Stadium. They're up 2-0 against the Dodgers and need just two wins to finish them off.
The Brewers would prefer to have the series wrapped up in Los Angeles for that reason alone. But it won't be easy to close out a team that manager Pat Murphy described as "arguably the best team ever" when discussing their Game 2 win.
The next two games show the one advantage the Dodgers have in this series concerning their rotation. Milwaukee will have to face Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in Games 3 and 4. If the series goes beyond that, then Tarik Skubal comes into play.
Here are three reasons why the Brewers need to finish off the Dodgers in the NLCS before the series moves back to Milwaukee.
Extended Series Neutralizes Brewers Bullpen Advantage
That brings an added level of urgency to the next three games. Should the series stretch out, it begins to neutralize the Brewers' top advantage. There is a significant times-faced penalty for relievers in the postseason. Travis Sawchik notes that the opposing hitter wOBA increases from .300 to .321 against relievers when they face the same hitter a third time in a postseason series.
The Brewers have gotten near-perfection from their bullpen this postseason. Milwaukee relievers have a 0.38 ERA in their six postseason games, a big reason why they're up on the Dodgers. They threw five perfect innings to defeat the Dodgers in Game 2, an MLB postseason record.
The two relievers to watch for this exposure penalty are right-hander Abner Uribe and left-hander Aaron Ashby. The Brewers have used both pitchers in all five of their five postseason wins so far, with Uribe appearing in all six of their postseason games.
That could become a problem if the series shifts back to Milwaukee. The Dodgers will see plenty of those two in the series. When the advantage starts shifting toward the hitter, that's when Los Angeles' lineup could become a bigger factor in determining the outcome of the series than the Brewers' bullpen.
Mitigate Dodgers Rotation Advantage
The Dodgers spent a fortune on their current rotation, with three of their four starters on $100+ million contracts. They also traded significant young talent to land Tarik Skubal and Tyler Glasnow in trades.
That's in stark contrast to the Brewers, as three of their four NLCS starters are young and homegrown. Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, and Robert Gasser entered the 2026 season with less than a full year of MLB service time.
The Brewers will be fine if they can split Games 3 and 4. That means they'll have their best pitcher starting a closeout game against the Dodgers. But it also places a lot of pressure on the 24-year-old to pitch the game of his life.
If Los Angeles sends the series back to Milwaukee, that's when their rotation advantage starts to manifest. The final two games would be Logan Henderson vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, then Robert Gasser vs. Blake Snell. Both pitching matchups on paper overwhelmingly favor the Dodgers.
Keep Pitching Staff Rested for World Series
The other thing to take into account is the fatigue factor throughout the entire postseason. A deep postseason run means pitchers are getting 70+ appearances in for a calendar year.
The Brewers did a great job of avoiding an extended series against the Padres in the NLDS. That was a stark contrast to their division series against the Cubs in 2025. They needed everything they could to survive that series, and that may have played a role in getting swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS.
The bullpen obviously gets cited for a potential fatigue factor, but also the rotation. Misiorowski hasn't been as dominant in the postseason, having to grind through his first two starts. The rotation also features two rookies in Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser, as well as an oft-injured pitcher in Dustin May.
It's unclear how many more innings those three can provide. But by finishing the series in Los Angeles, the Brewers won't need any of them until the World Series.
If they can finish the job at Dodger Stadium, it creates a potential advantage for the World Series. They can set their rotation and give both Uribe and Ashby the rest they'll need between series. The gap between Game 5 of the NLCS and Game 1 of the World Series is one week.
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