The UK has major gaps in its military capabilities in the High North that could leave its population, nuclear deterrent and critical subsea pipelines vulnerable to Russian attacks, MPs have warned.
The Commons Defence Committee warned that ‘dramatic progress’ is needed in building up UK armed forces and ships in the strategically important region by 2030.
2030 is the year from which former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer predicted Moscow could attack NATO.
The High North has become crucial to the UK’s defence and security, with Vladimir Putin increasingly sending spy ships based there into British waters, even as doubts have grown about Washington’s commitment to European security.
Failing to defend the region could leave underwater cables and pipelines carrying key data and energy to the UK exposed to sabotage during peacetime, the committee said.
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In the event of conflict, it said Russia could threaten the UK’s population, civilian and military infrastructure and vital Atlantic supply routes from the US.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said it is ‘clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses’.
But MPs highlighted a shortfall in anti-submarine warfare at a time when the greatest Russian threat comes from its submarines and naval sabotage forces.
The best deterrent is the Royal Navy’s anti-submarine warships and nuclear-powered submarines, but these are ageing and often out of action under maintenance.
The Royal Navy has five Type 23 frigates, which track down hostile submarines and protect the UK’s nuclear weapons, and six Type 45 destroyers in service, just over half of its requirement for 19 vessels.
Eight new Type 26 frigates will eventually take over, but with construction slow, the Defence Committee urged ministers to ensure that none of the remaining ones leaves service in the meantime.
The committee’s inquiry also heard of ‘a shockingly low availability’ of submarines, and that the UK appeared to have temporarily lost its ability to operate them beneath Arctic ice.
This would allow Russia in a conflict to conceal its nuclear submarines under the ice unchallenged while its attack submarines surge forward.
Committee chairman Tan Dhesi said: ‘The High North poses a major strategic challenge for the UK’s security. This is a demanding, hostile environment, and one that our greatest adversary, Russia, is seeking to dominate for military advantage.
‘The UK needs to be willing to address a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the High North. Publicly available evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines calls into question whether the UK can meet its commitments in the High North.
‘And if the UK Government means what it says – that Russia could attack Nato as soon as 2030 – then work to rectify these vulnerabilities cannot start soon enough.’
The committee also questioned whether the Joint Expeditionary Force (Jef), a UK-led military coalition of northern European nations, should focus more on threats in the High North rather than maintaining the same level of activity in the Baltic region.
The Kremlin is seeking to exploit the High North, loosely defined as the Arctic and parts of the North Atlantic, for minerals and for control over shipping routes as melting sea ice makes them more accessible.
An MoD spokesperson said: ‘We are clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses. During his recent visit to Iceland, the Defence Secretary saw firsthand how HMS St Albans helps track and deter Russian submarine activity across the North Atlantic.
‘Through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, we are leading allied activity across the High North, strengthening NATO’s northern flank and increasing our ability to respond rapidly to emerging threats. This government is also investing in the capabilities needed to meet those threats, with £1.5 billion backing Atlantic Bastion to deliver a next-generation Hybrid Navy and a further £330 million to strengthen the protection of critical undersea infrastructure.’