The Cook Political Report shifted 19 congressional races toward Democrats in their latest updates, less than two weeks out from the midterm elections. The new ratings are the latest warning sign for Republicans facing a challenging national environment as they defend their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday.
The update brings six seats that were previously classified as toss-ups into the Democratic column, while other shifts were in traditionally conservative seats that President Donald Trump carried by double-digits in 2024, that are now seen as competitive.
The move comes as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows ahead of the midterms.
Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of flipping the House, since they only need to win a handful of GOP-held seats to achieve a majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214 seats, so only a few pickups would shift the balance of power.
Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats in the midterms. Such was the case during Trump’s first term in 2018, when Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email.
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Most Competitive Races Ahead of Midterms: Map
In total, the Cook Political Report classifies 186 seats as Solid Democratic and 168 seats as Solid Republican.
An additional 17 seats are seen as Likely Democratic, and 16 seats are Lean Democratic. Meanwhile, 13 seats are classified as Likely Republican and 17 are Lean Republican. Seventeen seats are in the Toss Up category.
Here is a look at where competitive races stand in the Cook Political Report as of October 23.
Which House Races Shifted to Democrats? Full List
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek the updates indicate Democrats have “sustained their support and have momentum for getting control of the House and by a noticeable margin.”
“This is striking,” he said. “The Democrats are not only competitive in places that have gone back and forth between the parties but also in what have been staunch Trump and Republican-supporting districts. This shows the depth of perceptions of the Trump administration's poor performance on affordability, inflation, and the Iran War—and also increasing perceptions of corruption.”
The following House races shifted toward Democrats in the new update from the Cook Political Report.
Why Cook Shifted 19 Seats Toward Democrats
Cook analyst Erin Covey wrote in the update on Friday that Republicans’ path to retaining their slim House majority has “all but evaporated,” and that the new question is “how large Democrats’ majority will be in 2027.”
“As a result of new polling and ad spending, we’re moving another 19 races in Democrats’ direction. Six districts — four of which are held by Republican incumbents — are moving from the Toss Up column to Lean Democrat. Two more open seats are moving from Lean Republican to Toss Up,” she wrote.
Cook believes Democrats are likely to flip somewhere between 12 and 22 seats in the midterms, giving them a majority of anywhere between 227 and 237 seats when the next Congress convenes in January.
How Cook Ratings Compare to Other Forecasters
Sabato’s Crystal Ball classified 164 seats as Safe Republican, 20 seats as Likely Republican and 16 seats as Leans Republican. Meanwhile, it rates 182 seats as Safe Democratic, 21 seats as Likely Democratic and 20 seats as Leans Democratic.
It has 12 seats in the Toss-Up category.
FiftyPlusOne views 141 seats as Safe Republican, 34 seats as Likely Republican and 15 seats as Lean Republican. Meanwhile, it classifies 204 seats as Safe Democratic, 20 seats as Likely Democratic and 13 seats as Lean Democratic.
It classifies eight races as toss-ups.
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping House in the Polls
Recent polling has given Democrats an advantage on the generic ballot, a critical gauge for the House popular vote. These polls can signal the mood of the electorate, but are not always entirely accurate and have overestimated Democrats in some recent cycles.
The latest polling data from The New York Times and Siena University, conducted among 3,494 likely voters from October 12 to 19, showed Democrats up 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
Democrats also led by 11 points among 1,179 “strict” likely voters in the latest poll from YouGov, which surveyed 1,501 registered voters from October 19 to 20.
The latest data from Echelon Insights gave Democrats a more modest 5-point lead, 50 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 1,010 likely voters from October 15 to 19, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told Bloomberg News he believes Democrats are likely to retake the House.
“In the last 100 years, all off-year elections, whoever is the party in power, has the White House, has lost seats, and it’s only a few seats for the majority,” he said. “It won’t be like when Obama was in when we won 63 seats, or when Clinton was in and for the first time in 40 years, Republicans took over. They’ll get a majority. I’m not quite sure how big it is. But they will probably win the majority.”
How Have Recent House Elections Gone?
Recent House elections have been close, with 2018 being the most recent “blue wave” year, when Democrats picked up dozens of seats during the midterm of Trump’s first term in office. Democrats believe this year could yield similar results if these critical toss-up races break their way.
Here is a look at how recent elections have gone.
- 2016: Republicans won the House popular vote by about 1 point and held a 241-194 majority.
- 2018: Democrats won the House popular vote by about 8.6 points and held a 235-199 majority, with a vacancy in one district after the midterms.
- 2020: Democrats won the House popular vote by about 3.1 points and held a 222-213 majority.
- 2022: Republicans won the popular vote by about 2.7 points and held a 222-213 majority.
- 2024: Republicans won the House popular vote by about 2.6 points and held a 220-215 majority.
Why Democrats Believe They Will Flip the House
Trump’s approval rating is a key reason Democrats are optimistic that they will win a majority of seats in the House this year.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen since his return to office in January 2025, largely due to ongoing economic concerns around the cost of living and affordability. Gas prices, which have soared amid the Iran war, are another economic factor that has chipped away at Trump’s popularity.
In the Times poll, Trump’s net approval rating stood at -26 points, with 34 percent of respondents approving and 60 percent disapproving of his job performance. His approval rating was -19 points in the YouGov poll, with 40 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving.
What Happens Next
Early voting is already underway in several states, and campaigns will be spending the coming days making their final pitches to voters in hopes of motivating their bases and winning over any remaining undecided voters.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemon.