UN warns world remains off track to meet climate targets

The world is on course for a global temperature rise of about 2.8 degrees Celsius this century if current climate policies remain unchanged, according to a new United Nations assessment warning that governments are not doing enough to limit global warming.

The report, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), says existing national commitments and policies remain insufficient to meet the temperature goals established under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The agreement aims to keep the rise in global average temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

However, the latest assessment indicates that the world remains far off track, with the projected temperature increase posing significant risks to communities, economies and ecosystems.

UNEP warned that countries would need to accelerate emissions reductions substantially to reduce the scale of future warming. According to the report, global emissions would need to fall by around 18 per cent over the next four years and by approximately 45 per cent by 2035 to put the world on a more credible pathway towards limiting temperature increases.

The report comes as governments continue to struggle to reconcile their climate pledges with policies that support the production and consumption of fossil fuels.

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Coal, oil and natural gas remain major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide released through the burning of these fuels accumulates in the atmosphere and traps heat, contributing to rising global temperatures.

The assessment also highlights the importance of translating long-term climate targets into immediate action. Governments may announce goals for reaching net-zero emissions by the middle of the century, but the impact depends on whether those promises are supported by policies that reduce emissions in the near term.

The United States has faced particular scrutiny over its energy policies and continued reliance on fossil fuels. The report’s findings also place pressure on major emitters and wealthy countries to strengthen their commitments and provide support for lower-income nations dealing with climate impacts.

Despite the warning, UNEP’s assessment indicates that the scale of future warming is not entirely fixed. Rapid reductions in emissions, wider adoption of renewable energy and improved energy efficiency could help limit the eventual temperature rise.

Solar and wind power have expanded in many markets, offering alternatives to fossil fuels. However, the pace of the transition varies between countries, and rising energy demand continues to complicate efforts to reduce emissions.

The consequences of continued warming include more intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall in some regions, prolonged droughts in others, rising sea levels and increasing pressure on food and water supplies. The severity of these effects will depend partly on how quickly emissions are reduced and how effectively communities prepare for climate risks.

The report is expected to intensify pressure on governments to strengthen their climate plans and move from pledges to implementation.

UN officials and climate experts have repeatedly stressed that every fraction of a degree matters. Even if the 1.5-degree target is exceeded, cutting emissions quickly can reduce the scale of long-term damage and improve the prospects of limiting warming later in the century.

(theguardian)