Azerbaijan projects $31B in consolidated budget revenues by 2030

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Azerbaijan's consolidated budget revenues are projected to reach 52.7 billion manat ($31 billion) in 2030, 17.1% higher than the approved 2026 figure.

This was reflected in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework prepared by the country's Ministry of Finance for the next four years.

According to the document, consolidated budget revenues are projected at 47.6 billion manat ($28 billion) in 2027. This is 2.6 billion manat (approximately $1.5 billion), or 5.8%, higher than the approved 2026 figure.

By the end of the medium-term period, consolidated budget revenues are expected to reach 52.7 billion manat ($31 billion) in 2030, up 7.7 billion manat (approximately $4.5 billion) from the 2026 figure.

State budget revenues were calculated based on actual performance indicators from previous years and the latest macroeconomic forecasts for 2027–2030. GDP and non-oil and gas GDP growth rates, the exchange rate, oil and gas production, oil prices, and other factors were taken into account in preparing the forecasts.

The revenue calculations were carried out in accordance with the rules for forecasting state budget revenues, including non-oil and oil revenues, approved by Decision No. 4 of the Cabinet of Ministers of Azerbaijan dated January 10, 2020.

According to the document, an oil price of $65 per barrel was assumed for the 2027–2030 period when forecasting oil and gas revenues for the state budget. Projected oil and gas production volumes and the expected return on the assets of the State Oil Fund were also taken into account.

Economic growth in the non-oil and gas sector, efforts to reduce the shadow economy, optimization of personal income tax revenues, income legalization, the expansion of electronic governance, and stronger tax controls are expected to create conditions for increasing the share of the non-oil and gas sector in budget revenues.

In 2030, non-oil and gas revenues are projected to account for 69.8% of total state budget revenues, an increase of 9.3 percentage points compared with 2027. In absolute terms, these revenues are expected to rise by 19.2% to 28.3 billion manat ($16.6 billion).

According to the Ministry of Finance's forecasts, the budget resource envelope is projected to amount to 50.4 billion manat ($29.6 billion) in 2027 and 53.1 billion manat ($31.2 billion) by the end of the medium-term period.

In determining the resource envelope, the ministry took into account the upper limits set under the fiscal rule for the ratio of the consolidated budget's non-oil base deficit to non-oil GDP and the ratio of public debt to GDP by the end of 2029. It also considered the amount of public debt that could be incurred within those limits and the annual caps on transfers from the State Oil Fund to the state budget.