Kampala, Uganda I URN | Uganda’s preparations for the expected strengthening of El Nino remain incomplete, with the country’s contingency plan still under finalisation as forecasts point to increased risks of flooding and landslides during the October–December rainy season.
A September 2026 humanitarian snapshot by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ Regional Office for Eastern and Southern Africa (OCHA ROSEA) warns that the country could experience above-average rainfall, with up to a 90% probability of more than 400 millimetres of rain around Lake Victoria.
The forecast also identifies areas around Mount Elgon as vulnerable to flooding and landslides.
The report lists Uganda’s contingency plan as under finalisation, with an estimated US$22.5 million requirement and US$7.1 million in pre-arranged financing for anticipatory flood action.
The preparedness gap comes as El Niño conditions, which began in June, are expected to strengthen into a potentially very strong event and persist into early 2027. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could further intensify rainfall across parts of Eastern Africa.
The World Meteorological Organisation and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecast more than a 90% probability of above-average rainfall in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya during the October–December season. Somalia, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania are also at risk of rainfall exceeding 400 millimetres.
OCHA warns that the expected rains could deepen existing humanitarian pressures by destroying crops and livestock, disrupting access to markets and income, and increasing the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition. Flooding could also trigger displacement, damage infrastructure and interrupt access to health services.
The report notes that cholera cases across the region had already exceeded 22,900 in the third quarter, before the anticipated rains began, raising concern about further waterborne and vector-borne disease outbreaks.
Previous El Niño events in 2015–2016 and 2023–2024 resulted in widespread flooding, displacement, livelihood losses and disease outbreaks across parts of the region, illustrating the potential consequences of the forecast conditions.
With the October to December rainy season approaching its peak, the statement identifies preparedness and anticipatory action as immediate priorities.These include strengthening early warning systems, improving contingency planning and pre-positioning humanitarian supplies in areas considered most vulnerable to flooding.The measures are intended to help governments and humanitarian agencies act before the anticipated impacts occur, reducing losses to lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.The outlook underscores the need for countries across Eastern Africa to prepare for the possibility of extreme rainfall while continuing to address the effects of drier-than-normal conditions in other parts of the region.
The scale of the threat is illustrated by the 2023 El Niño event, which displaced about 1.3 million people in Somalia, 633,000 in Ethiopia and 546,000 in Kenya, while 705 people died across the region, according to the snapshot.
The report warns of a credible risk of famine in southern Somalia if flooding reaches levels experienced in 1997 or 2023, highlighting the potential consequences for communities already facing food shortages and disrupted livelihoods.
OCHA identifies early warning, contingency planning and the pre-positioning of humanitarian supplies as priorities before the rainy season reaches its peak.
Recommended measures include distributing appropriate seeds, diversifying crops, strengthening soil-erosion control structures and improving access to agricultural advice.
The report also recommends providing jerrycans and chlorine tablets to protect drinking water, reinforcing vulnerable shelters and distributing emergency supplies for households that may need to evacuate.
Health and nutrition interventions, including screening children for malnutrition and providing therapeutic food where needed, are also identified as important measures.
The regional outlook notes that El Niño has contrasting effects across Eastern Africa, contributing to drier-than-normal conditions in some northern and western areas while increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall in eastern and southern areas.
The report calls for early action to protect vulnerable communities and livelihoods as the region faces the combined risks of extreme rainfall, flooding and landslides.
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