Zeine Zeidane's first appearance as director of the IMF Africa Department was always going to attract attention. The role is one of the most scrutinised within the institution, given the continent's complex macroeconomic landscape and the IMF's outsized influence on fiscal and monetary policy across its 45 Sub‑Saharan African member states.
Zeidane's debut on Thursday 15 October, coinciding with the release of October's regional economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, delivered a message that was encouraging but tempered with caution.
"Our main message is captured in the title, "Resilient Growth, Clouded Outlook," he said.
"Growth has been held up. We project the region to grow by 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027. This is 0.2 percentage points up compared to our forecast in April," he said.
But Zeidane was careful not to let the good news overshadow the risks. Africa has adapted impressively, he suggested, but structural vulnerabilities remain stark.
"Resilience is not immunity," he said.
"The region's resilience is real, and it reflects difficult reforms and remarkable adaptation...Resilience today must not be financed by sacrificing tomorrow's growth," he added.
Reform dividends, but uneven outcomes
Zeidane attributed the region's resilience to reforms that have taken root in several major economies.
"The region's resilience reflects both earlier reforms and rapid adaptation," he said.
"Reforms in the region, such as subsidy reform and exchange rate reform in Ethiopia and Nigeria, and structural reform in South Africa, have strengthened macroeconomic stability."
These reforms have helped countries enter the current cycle with stronger buffers.
"We ended up with almost balanced primary balance and fiscal balance. We ended up with debt stabilising, low inflation, and improvement of the current account," he noted, indicating that African economies have been able to absorb shocks more effectively than expected.
Yet the aggregate picture does not fully reflect the divergences across individual countries, Zeidane cautioned. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high oil, copper and gold prices, while non‑resource‑intensive economies are seeing widening external deficits and slowing growth.
Inflation pressures are also resurfacing.
"Median inflation is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% this year and 5% next year," he said, laying the blame at the doors of rising fuel, transport and fertiliser costs.
Fiscal space remains tight, he said, with "Interest payments absorbing around 13% of government revenue in a typical country, leaving less room for social spending and public investment."
A projected 12% fall in bilateral aid in the region this year, he noted, will affect the region's ability to withstand further shock.
IMF says protect, stabilise, reform
Zeidane outlined three priorities for policymakers, echoing recommendations made by IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva earlier this week.
First, protect vulnerable households, but do so efficiently.
Responding to a question from African Business, he said:
"On subsidies, as an institution, we recommend in general to governments to pay great attention to social protection, and to protect the most vulnerable component of society."
But he argued that subsidies disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
"Most of it is going to those who don't need it...Broad fuel price relief is expensive and poorly targeted."
Any temporary relief, he stressed, must be "transparently funded, capped, and time-bound."
Second, safeguard economic stability. Commodity exporters should save windfalls and repay costly debt. Import‑dependent economies must stay the course on fiscal adjustment while protecting essential services.
"For many countries, monetary tightening may be needed to prevent temporary price pressures from becoming persistent," he said.
Third, prioritise growth‑enhancing reforms.
"More reliable electricity, better digital connectivity, stronger skills, and a more predictable business environment can unlock private investment and jobs," he said.
Regional trade and power integration can expand markets and reduce exposure to imported fuel. Africa's productivity gap remains large, and closing even part of it could create substantial opportunities for more inclusive growth.
Nigeria: reform dividends
Nigeria featured prominently during the Q&A, reflecting its size and influence. The IMF now projects growth of 4.3% in 2027, driven by improved oil receipts and stronger services activity.
Montfort Mlachila, deputy director of the IMF's African Department explained: "Nigeria is benefiting from the improved oil prices, which has raised the amount of foreign exchange receipts, and therefore reserves are also improved."
Inflation has declined significantly, improving liquidity and macroeconomic conditions.
Zeidane emphasised the importance of continuing reforms.
"Our advice to the government has always been to mobilise more domestic revenue outside the oil sector to create fiscal space for education, health, infrastructure," he said.
Nigeria's young, tech‑savvy population and large market make it attractive for private investment, but governance and business‑environment reforms remain essential.
On monetary policy, he endorsed the Central Bank's recent rate realignment. Nigeria had "high real interest rates," he said, and the decision to normalise policy was "appropriate."
Ghana: strong momentum
Ghana's economic performance has also been a positive surprise.
"Growth in Ghana has been fairly strong in the first half of the year, around 6.2%," Mlachila said.
Inflation is within target, fiscal performance is strong, and gold prices have provided a cushion. The IMF expects this momentum to continue.
Zeidane confirmed that Ghana's is progressing well under IMF support.
"The performance has been strong up to now," he said.
Risks remain, particularly commodity price volatility, but Ghana is "in a very strong position."
Senegal: debt treatment advancing
Senegal's debt situation drew several questions.
Senegal has hired financial advisers and expressed interest in a debt restructuring under the G20's Common Framework, Zeidane said.
"We are in a very good place," said Zeidane. "We have reached a staff‑level agreement. We are working with the government."
He described positive engagement with creditors.
"Yesterday was the first meeting of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable with the main bilateral official creditors of Senegal...Things are moving in the right direction," he said.