Bank of Canada set for pair of important data drops ahead of ‘live’ rate decision

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada will get a raft of fresh data to start next week as it weighs what could be a pivotal interest rate decision at the end of the month.

Statistics Canada is set to release its September inflation data on Monday, giving the central bank a look at how energy price pressures are influencing other parts of the consumer basket.

RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen says he expects the annual rate of inflation held steady around three per cent last month, mostly because of persistently high gasoline prices.

Janzen says the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision on Oct. 28 will be a “live” meeting, where the door is open for the central bank to raise its policy rate, but a hike is not his base case scenario.

Even if the September price data shows signs inflationary pressures are spreading past the gas pumps, Janzen says the central bank will be weighing that against signs of softness in the labour market and wider economy.

The Bank of Canada will also release its own quarterly surveys of businesses and consumers on Monday, which can give the bank a better sense of whether firms are planning to pass their own rising costs on to consumers.

“Higher energy prices — all else equal — would mean broader inflation pressures would be expected to rise in the future. But if the economy is getting weaker, then there are some offsetting disinflationary forces there as well,” Janzen says.

“It puts (the Bank of Canada) still in a wait-and-see mode — very, very data dependent.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2026.