Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed told ABC News this week that he does not consider Israel an ally of the United States, his strongest statement yet on an issue that has drawn criticism and could affect his support among Jewish voters.
“An ally that takes your money to push you into wars you shouldn’t be fighting is not an ally. It’s like, I mean, do you have kids?” El-Sayed replied when asked by ABC News anchor Linsey Davis whether he viewed Israel as an American ally.
The remarks came a week after El-Sayed told MS NOW that the Israeli government had used the United States and done terrible things with American money. In an earlier debate, he declined to say whether Israel or Iran posed a greater threat to the United States.
El-Sayed's views on Israel have drawn scrutiny since before he won the Democratic nomination in August, defeating U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in a race where AIPAC and its affiliated groups spent nearly $30 million trying to stop him. His description of Israel's war in Gaza as a "genocide" and his association with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker have also given Republican nominee Mike Rogers material for attacks, including accusations related to antisemitism.
The question now is whether El-Sayed's increasingly blunt comments on Israel will cost him support among Jewish voters in a close race where every vote could matter.
The ABC interview drew swift criticism online. Joe Walsh, former Republican congressman from Illinois who later became a Democrat, wrote that anyone who does not consider Israel a U.S. ally does not "belong in the U.S. Senate."
Activist and writer Amy Siskind suggested this week that El-Sayed's campaign may be betting it can win without the support of most Jewish voters. Michigan's electoral demographics suggest that strategy could work.
The state has roughly twice as many registered Muslim voters as Jewish voters. Many Muslim voters backed Green Party candidate Jill Stein or President Donald Trump in 2024, while others stayed home. If El-Sayed can win more of those voters back, their support could offset losses among Jewish Democrats.
Newsweek reached out to El-Sayed and Rogers campaigns for comment Tuesday.
Michigan Muslim vs. Jewish Voters: How the Numbers Compare
The Muslim voter advocacy group Emgage estimates there are more than 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan. By comparison, Michigan is home to roughly 105,000 Jewish adults, about 1.4 percent of the state's electorate, according to the American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University. Republican-aligned estimates run higher, up to 130,000.
"It is important to remember that no state has a higher percentage of Arab-American residents in the U.S. than Michigan. The Jewish population is less than half that of the Arab-American population there," Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, told Newsweek.
Arab American and Muslim are overlapping but distinct groups. Many of Michigan's Arab American residents are Chaldean and other Christians, while the state's Muslim community also includes South Asian and Black Muslims.
Turnout narrows the gap, Kessler warns. Jewish voters participate at high rates. Muslim turnout has historically lagged. In the 2018 midterms, 50 percent of registered Muslim voters in Michigan cast ballots, according to Emgage.
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In 2024, a Council on American-Islamic Relations exit poll of Michigan Muslim voters found Stein received 59 percent support, Trump 22 percent and then-Vice President Kamala Harris 14 percent. Trump won more than 42 percent of the vote in Dearborn, where more than 55 percent of residents are of Middle Eastern descent, up from 30 percent four years earlier. Many others sat out. Early voting turnout was 25 percent in Dearborn and 24 percent in Hamtramck, against 44 percent statewide.
Those voters already delivered for El-Sayed once. In the August primary, he got 16,265 more votes than Michigan Representative Haley Stevens across Dearborn and Dearborn Heights alone, more than his statewide margin over her of a little over 14,000 votes, in unofficial results.
At a televised town hall on Monday, Rogers said he expects to win a sizable share of the state's roughly 70,000 Jewish Democrats. Winning half, he estimated, would add about 35,000 votes to his total. He lost his 2024 Senate race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by 19,006 votes.
Votes that switch sides count double. A Jewish Democrat who moves to Rogers shifts the margin by two, since El-Sayed loses one and Rogers picks one up. A Muslim voter coming back from a Stein ballot, or off the couch, adds one. Someone who voted Trump in 2024 and picks El-Sayed now adds two.
Democratic Voters' Sympathy for Israel Hits Record Low
Few Democrats in the Senate talk about Israel the way El-Sayed does. Gallup's numbers suggest the party's voters sit closer to him than to them.
In Gallup's February survey, 65 percent of Democrats said their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians, while 17 percent said they sympathize more with the Israelis. In 2014, Democrats' sympathy for the Israelis peaked at 58 percent. For the first time since Gallup began asking the question a quarter-century ago, more Americans overall sided with the Palestinians, 41 percent to 36 percent.
Many Democratic insiders also believe the issue cost the party the White House. Officials working on the Democratic National Committee's internal review of the 2024 election concluded that Harris lost support because of the Biden administration's approach to the war in Gaza, Axios reported. The IMEU Policy Project, a pro-Palestinian advocacy group, said DNC officials told its members that their own data found the policy was a "net negative."
A YouGov poll commissioned by IMEU found that 29 percent of 2020 Biden voters who did not back Harris in 2024 named ending Israel's violence in Gaza as their top issue, ahead of the economy at 24 percent. In the six battleground states that flipped to Trump, the economy ranked first at 33 percent, with Gaza second at 20 percent.
In Michigan, more than 100,000 Democrats voted "uncommitted" in the 2024 presidential primary, most heavily in Wayne County, home to Dearborn's Arab American community. Harris herself said last week that the Biden administration should have responded sooner to the Israeli government's conduct in Gaza.
Temple Israel Attack, AIPAC Spending Fuel Antisemitism Concerns in Michigan
On March 12, a man drove a fireworks-laden truck into Temple Israel, a Reform synagogue in West Bloomfield Township. The FBI later assessed it as a Hezbollah-inspired act of terrorism targeting the Jewish community. The attacker was the only person killed, and fear among Michigan Jews has not eased since.
El-Sayed's first response drew backlash. He said there was never a justification for attacking innocent people, then added that violence is a cycle and that hurt people hurt people. Months later, at the state Democratic convention in August, he apologized to the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus. "I made a mistake," he told the group.
His ties to left-wing streamer Hasan Piker have also drawn criticism. Pressed on the issue, El-Sayed told reporters, "this is not a campaign that is about a single streamer in California."
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The primary was shaped by record pro-Israel spending, the largest investment AIPAC has ever made in a single race. El-Sayed made the spending a centerpiece of his campaign. Stevens has since endorsed him, describing herself as a Democratic Zionist who wants to "be a part of stopping MAGA."
Michigan's Jewish community is split. Roughly 500 people identifying as Jewish Democrats or independents signed an open letter calling Rogers a friend to the Jewish community. A separate letter released September 17 drew more than 620 Jewish voters who said they intend to vote for El-Sayed. The Jewish Democratic Council of America has not endorsed him, though its CEO, Halie Soifer, wrote that a vote for any Republican is a vote for Trump. No public poll has measured how Michigan's Jewish voters plan to vote in the race.
Does Religion Decide Elections? El-Sayed Leans Into Muslim Faith
El-Sayed has leaned into his own Islamic faith as Republican attacks on his religion have escalated. On Monday, his campaign released a 30-second ad that opens with four words: "My name is Abdul."
Last week, Trump referred to El-Sayed as "Mohammed" and falsely called him a "jihadist." Rogers has pointed in debate to El-Sayed's mother's past work for the Islamic American Relief Agency, which the Treasury Department designated in 2004 as supporting terrorism.
Yet neither the Jewish nor the Muslim community votes as a bloc. Some Jewish Democrats remain committed to El-Sayed, and some Muslim and Arab voters, many of them socially conservative, have backed Republicans before.
Ask most Michigan voters what matters and they talk about prices. A Bridge Michigan survey found the economy is the biggest issue for Detroit-area voters, with others citing housing, affordability and health care, and El-Sayed has spent much of the campaign tying Rogers to Trump on costs and tariffs.
Focus groups conducted by MS NOW found both Jewish voters in Oakland County and Muslim voters in Dearborn describing fears for their physical safety in similar terms. One Jewish participant who refuses to vote for El-Sayed said she also rejects Rogers because of advertising she described as racially charged.
While religion may not be the main obstacle, winning over Black voters could be a bigger challenge for El-Sayed. Black voters make up roughly 11 to 12 percent of Michigan's electorate, compared with 1.5 to 2 percent who are Jewish. In a Washington Post poll, 83 percent of Black voters said they wanted Democrats to control the Senate, but only 67 percent said they would vote for El-Sayed.
Latest Michigan Senate Polls: El-Sayed vs. Rogers
El-Sayed has led in all five October polls included in the RCP average, and Rogers has not led any individual poll since early September. Pollsters warn the race could still shift. Mitchell Research & Communications said, "The race could tighten, perhaps dramatically," citing past Michigan Senate races where Republicans gained late.
The RealClearPolitics polling average gives El-Sayed a 2.6-point lead over Rogers, based on polls completed between September 27 and October 14. That is down from a 3.4-point lead in the previous stretch. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim U.S. senator.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins