Morocco and Spain need closer counterterrorism cooperation to disrupt an emerging Islamic State logistical corridor from the Sahel into southern Europe, according to an analysis published Sunday by US national security outlet Lawfare.
Authors Lucas Webber, Peter Smith and Colin P. Clarke warn that Islamic State-Sahel Province, previously focused on insurgency in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, is increasingly building networks capable of supporting attacks beyond the region.
They identify northern Morocco, the Strait of Gibraltar and Spain’s Balearic Islands as important points along a route that exploits existing smuggling networks to move recruits, funds and supplies.
The analysis cites the March 2026 dismantling of a Tangier–Mallorca cell, in which three suspects were arrested in Morocco and another in Spain. Investigators linked the network to financing Islamic State fighters in the Sahel and Somalia, alongside preparations for a possible attack in Spain.
It also highlights a 12-member network known as the “Lions of the Caliphate in the Maghreb,” dismantled across nine Moroccan cities, and another cell broken up in July whose alleged preparations included explosive materials and a modified vehicle.
The authors point to the July terrorist attack on Berlin’s Pride celebrations as evidence of another concern: extremists unable to reach foreign battlefields turning instead to domestic attacks.
The attacker, Abdul Ballout, a German of Lebanese descent, had unsuccessfully attempted to travel to Mauritania to join Islamic State militants in Mali. He later drove a van into a crowd in Berlin, killing one person and injuring 29, before being shot dead by police.
The researchers do not establish that Ballout traveled through Morocco or Spain, but present his trajectory as an example of the broader threat posed by Islamic State recruitment networks.
They argue that European security agencies have concentrated on Islamic State branches in Afghanistan and the Middle East, leaving gaps in monitoring Sahel-linked networks.
The analysis urges stronger intelligence cooperation between Morocco, Spain and European partners, warning that treating Sahel instability as a distant problem could expose Europe to further attacks.
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