The Panthers know what usually happens when Baker Mayfield gets another shot at his former team.
Mayfield is 5-1 against Carolina since joining Tampa Bay, and considering how his short stay with the Panthers ended, it's not hard to understand why these games seem to mean a little more to him. He's had plenty of chances to remind Carolina that things worked out just fine after the Panthers moved on from him.
For once, though, that might not be such a bad thing for Carolina.
Mayfield is coming back Sunday after missing three games with an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. He's already the type of quarterback who isn't afraid to take chances, and I don't expect three weeks away to change that, especially against the Panthers.
If anything, Carolina should be hoping he tries to do a little too much.
This Panthers defense is in a much better spot
The Panthers have played much better defensively over the last couple of weeks. Carolina held Philadelphia to 222 total yards and only 35 on the ground last Sunday, and the Panthers have now held back-to-back opponents under 50 rushing yards.
That's important against Mayfield because Carolina can't let Tampa Bay make his return easy. If the Panthers can slow down the run again and put the game on a quarterback who hasn't played in three weeks, they should get some chances to make plays.
Mayfield has never been afraid to trust his arm. He'll extend plays, try to squeeze the ball into tight windows and take shots when he thinks something is there. That's part of the reason he's been able to turn his career around in Tampa Bay, but it's also something Carolina has to be ready to take advantage of Sunday.
The Panthers haven't forced a bunch of turnovers this season, so I'm not going to suddenly predict three interceptions just because Mayfield is coming back. But if he's looking for the big play against his former team, Carolina can't let a tipped ball or bad decision hit the ground.
Those are the plays this defense needs to start making.
Let Baker make this personal
I wrote earlier about why Mayfield returning shouldn't change what Carolina expects from this game. He's better than the alternative Tampa Bay would've put on the field, but the Panthers are 3-2, they've won three of four and they're playing at home.
This shouldn't become a game where Carolina suddenly plays scared because Mayfield is back.
If anything, make him uncomfortable early and see how patient he's willing to be. Make Tampa Bay put together long drives. Don't give him the easy throws, and don't let him escape the pocket and turn a broken play into 25 yards.
Then see if that old Panthers history starts creeping into things.
Mayfield went 1-5 as Carolina's starter in 2022 and was released before the season was even over. Since then, he's rebuilt his career while making a habit of beating the team that moved on from him. If he still gets a little extra satisfaction out of beating the Panthers, I can't really blame him.
But Carolina doesn't have to make it easy for him anymore.
For years, Mayfield getting a little extra fired up to play the Panthers has usually ended with him getting the last laugh.
Maybe this time Carolina can finally use some of that against him
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