Putin’s Nightmare: The Coming Congressional Realignment

During his six years in office, President Trump dominated the Federal government and global relations because the Republicans controlled Congress and he controlled the Republican Party.

However, the nation, including non-MAGA Republicans and many independents, has moved past its early fascination and patience with Trump and is now looking to the Democratic Party as an antidote to MAGA. If these trends continue and the forecasting polls and historical precedents hold up, the Democratic Party is very likely to win control of the House of Representatives and has a better-than-even chance of winning the Senate in early November.

Of the two parties, the Republican Party has traditionally taken stronger positions in support of democracies and in constraining authoritarian regimes – as exemplified by Republican Reagan’s unswerving pressure on the USSR and Democrat Obama’s flaccid response to Putin’s invasion of Crimea.

However, after the invasion, polls show striking partisan reversals. Democrats have increasingly viewed Russia as a “major threat” from 2014 to the present, while Republican perception of Russia as an existential threat has declined sharply after Trump took office in 2016, increased briefly in 2022, and then continued to decline.

According to the Pew Research Center, between 2022 and August 2026, Democratic Party members’ support for “aid to Ukraine” has risen and held steady at close to 80% since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Conversely, Republican members’ support dropped from 68% to 38/42%. These partisan differences inevitably show up in congressional voting patterns.

Other Topics of Interest

Midterms 2026: What Comes Next for the US and Europe?

European newspapers examine how the Nov. 3 US midterms could reshape Trump’s foreign policy, congressional aid oversight, and ties with Kyiv.

With one exception, House and Senate Democrats voted more consistently and nearly unanimously on every major aid package for Ukraine, while Republicans were deeply fractured, with a large and growing anti-Ukraine faction. (The one exception was the recent vote on the 2026 Russia Sanctions Expansion Act, which House Republicans watered down and altered so much that many Democrats mistrusted Trump’s intentions and use of the act’s tariff authority.)

If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, President Trump will face an intensely adversarial Congress with enormous power to oversee the executive branch as a coequal.

Trump may become a virtual lame-duck president, his every move scrutinized, and his time preoccupied with Democrat-led investigations into his and his family’s dealings and the efficacy of his policies. Many of his “loyal” appointees will likely resign before the new Congress takes office on Jan. 3, while others will be forced out for cause.

In Washington, when a polarizing officeholder loses power, phones stop ringing, dinner invitations get red-lined, damning accusations appear in the media, and the succession guessing game starts all over again. Democratic Congressman Raskin of the House Judiciary Committee described his investigative agenda as “gargantuan.”

Across the Atlantic, Kyiv and Europe’s other capitals will collectively sigh with relief that so many strong Democratic supporters of NATO, the EU, and Ukraine now have real power. Influential figures and leaders such as Hakeem Jeffries, Gregory Meeks, Chuck Schumer, Steny Hoyer, Mark Kelly, and perhaps even Eugene Vindman will emerge to redirect Trump’s trans-Atlantic policies towards more predictable, constructive, and traditional ends.

In distant Moscow, Putin’s hopes and expectations will be shattered when he realizes that it won’t get any better for Russia, so he’d better take his lumps and start thinking seriously about peace.

The first impact of the realignment (even before the end of the year) may be the enactment of the Ukraine Support Act (H.R. 2913), which the House passed on June 4, 2026, and the Senate put on the calendar in July but has not submitted to a full vote. While all attention has been focused on the “Russia Sanctions” bill, the “Ukraine Support Act” is a true “dream” bill with far weightier implications for Ukraine and Europe in securing an early, lasting peace. This is the one “omnibus” bill that merits full, coordinated support by the Ukrainian-American diaspora.

Although Trump will retain much of his constitutional authority over national security and foreign policy, Congress, through its power of the purse, senior appointments, oversight, legislation, treaties, legally binding frameworks, public hearings, and investigations, could reinvigorate US support for Ukraine and NATO and restore predictability.

By assembling veto-proof majorities with pro-Ukrainian Republicans, Democrats could force robust military and direct budgetary assistance packages such as the “Ukraine Support Act” even without the president’s approval. Putin’s worst nightmare – a militarily strong Ukraine supported by Congress and increasing sanctions on his economy – could well result in a secure and just peace.

Democratic control of Congress is likely to produce other, more subtle but very serious implications. Trump’s alignment with Russia’s efforts to break up European unity by encouraging “populist”/nativist movements should be defunded so that fringe, extremist, pro-Russian groups would lose two of their three biggest boosters – Trump, Vance and Putin.

Although every effort should be made to push Europe to develop its own security and reimburse the US for all expenditures incurred on Europe’s behalf, a strong Congressional recommitment to NATO would let NATO members systematically build up their forces without fearing Russia. Congress should also repudiate any territorial claims against NATO members or the Western Hemisphere.

A Democratic victory in the mid-term elections would bring welcome relief to both Ukraine and Europe and restore stability and normality to the US as long as the Party can keep its own fringe elements in check. Future historians, commenting on this period, may define it as the Fall of the House of Trump.