Novak Djokovic has made no secret of his desire to return to the ATP Finals this year.
And, his actions have certainly matched his words, having rather surprisingly added another event to his calendar as the end of the season draws closer, this time in Basel.
The Serbian’s decision to accept a late wildcard has therefore afforded him two final opportunities to secure his spot in the ATP Tour’s premier end-of-season showdown, but he still has to achieve some impressive results to do so.
Not only that, but technically, it remains out of his hands. He can do his very best, but if those above him match, outperform, or even just slightly underperform in relation to Novak Djokovic, they will still qualify.
With that in mind, here’s exactly what the 24-time Grand Slam champion must do if he is to play at the ATP Finals this year.
The exact results Novak Djokovic needs to qualify for the ATP Finals
Firstly, it’s worth highlighting how many points the 39-year-old actually has on offer after taking a wildcard in Basel.
Currently, Rafael Jodar is ninth in the ATP Live Race on 3,159 points, with Djokovic 11th on 2,840. He is just 40 points behind Alex de Miñaur in 10th, and about 319 points behind Jodar.
- Basel: first-round loss 0, R16 50, QF 100, SF 200, final 330, title 500.
- Paris Masters: first round 10, second round 50, third round 100, QF 200, SF 400, final 650, title 1,000
This means that, with back-to-back titles, he could soar past the vast majority of the competition and render this debate useless.
However, we are assuming that Djokovic, whilst capable of the unthinkable, likely won’t achieve such success.
Instead, there are a handful of alternative finishes that could secure his qualification, with the first assuming that nobody around him scores any points between now and the end of the campaign. Obviously, that is almost impossible, but it offers important context to see what the minimum he needs at this stage.
There are three minimum routes: reach the Basel final, and Paris doesn’t matter; reach a Basel semi-final plus a Paris quarter-final; reach a Paris semi-final, Basel doesn’t matter.
Jodar will not stand still though, and how he performs will only increase the demands on Djokovic.
However, just reaching the final in Basel would change everything: With a Basel final (330 points), Djokovic only has to match Jodar’s Paris round, up to the semi-finals. With the Basel title (500), he’s safe unless Jodar reaches the quarter-finals or better.
| Basel ↓ / Paris → | R1 (10) | R2 (50) | R3 (100) | QF (200) | SF (400) | F (650) | W (1000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out R1 (0) | 2,850 | 2,890 | 2,940 | 3,040 | 3,240 | 3,490 | 3,840 |
| R16 (50) | 2,900 | 2,940 | 2,990 | 3,090 | 3,290 | 3,540 | 3,890 |
| QF (100) | 2,950 | 2,990 | 3,040 | 3,140 | 3,340 | 3,590 | 3,940 |
| SF (200) | 3,050 | 3,090 | 3,140 | 3,240 | 3,440 | 3,690 | 4,040 |
| Final (330) | 3,180 | 3,220 | 3,270 | 3,370 | 3,570 | 3,820 | 4,170 |
| Title (500) | 3,350 | 3,390 | 3,440 | 3,540 | 3,740 | 3,990 | 4,340 |
Overperformance in any of these events could see the legendary veteran fly past any number of players vying for these final few spots, with the 20-year-old just his closest rival right now.
Whatever happens, Djokovic will need deep runs in both of his final two events of the year just to stand a chance. Even then, it might not be enough.