Just over a decade ago, the then Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal posted a comment on what was then Twitter. "Modi is a coward and a psychopath," Kejriwal wrote. He was referring to Narendra Modi, the leader of the Hindu nationalist BJP who had become India's 15th prime minister a year and a half earlier.
Kejriwal is no longer the CM of Delhi, his Aam Aadmi Party having lost the assembly elections in 2024 after nearly a decade in power. Modi, on the other hand, is still at the helm in the centre, having won a third consecutive victory in Lok Sobha polls two years ago.
Kejriwal more recently re-posted his old comment on what is now X, with an air of vindication. "I had already told you back in 2015," he wrote on 10 October. Clearly, he thinks recent events in India have "proved" his assessment that the BJP leader lacked courage.
The "coward" jibe was deliberate and calculated. From his time as the Chief Minister of Gujrat, Modi has cultivated the image of a strong leader who would take on India's enemies, real or perceived, at home and abroad. It is this "tough man" image that Kejriwal and others now want to dismantle.
Kejriwal's comment came in the midst of mass protests in the heart of Delhi, organised by a youth-led group calling themselves the Cockroach Janata Party or CJP. They were calling for the resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner, but the protests are widely being seen as the most serious challenge Narendra Modi has had to face in the past 12 years.
Cockroaches' challenge
The fact that the challenge is being posed not by opposition political parties, but by masses of non-partisan youth inspired by a protest movement founded just five months ago, has caught the imagination of people across India and beyond.
The CJP itself was born out of protests against a comment by India's Chief Justice Surya Kant back in May. The CJI had referred to unemployed individuals who use social media to vent their frustrations at government institutions as "cockroaches." Activist Abhijeet Dipke sensed the anger among the youth, and launched the satirical "party" whose name was designed to mock both the Chief Justice and the ruling BJP.
What started as a social media satire soon turned into a real-world movement. Anger at a throwaway comment by India's top judge soon snowballed into demand for change, from the education system to people's right to vote. Ostensibly, the protests in Delhi have the CEC Gyanesh Kumar in the crosshairs; but in reality, it is the prime minister who may well be the target.
The government's response to the 10 October protests involved some tough measures not often seen in the Indian capital: closure of Metro stations, suspension of mobile internet services in the vicinity of the protests, massive police deployment, mass arrests of protesters, politicians, lawyers, even journalists carrying out their professional duties.
Here lies the crunch. If the CJP's ultimate goal is to bring down the BJP government, then what they started in July with the Education Minister can be seen as the opening salvo in a long campaign to undermine Modi's image, his influence and ultimately, his sway over the voting public.
It is this government response which led Kejriwal to refer back to his 2015 post and brand the prime minister a "coward." Some leaders of the CJP were even detained at airports as they flew in from abroad. Kejriwal said such actions showed "an unprecedented level of fear."
SIR the manipulator?
The big question now being asked is, whether the CJP protests can lead to the CEC's downfall, just as the "cockroach protests" in July forced India's education minister Dharmendra Pradhan to resign? The CEC's scalp is much bigger than that of Pradhan, and youth anger at Gyanesh Kumar presents a more fundamental political challenge than that faced by the education ministry.
The demand for the CEC's resignation comes from widespread dissatisfaction with the Special Intensive Revision or SIR process by which India's electoral roll is being redrawn. The SIR process is not designed to add names to the voter list; rather, it is designed to delete names which the Election Commission deems false or mistaken.
Undoubtedly, there were millions of names which needed to be removed as they were duplicates or belonged to people no longer alive. But that is only a small part of the story.
Anger has been growing for months over allegations that SIR is striking down names of genuine voters, many from minority communities, among others. Some fear that the revision has been designed to create a new list favourable for the ruling BJP. The recent assembly polls in West Bengal produced a BJP victory for the first time in the eastern state's history. It came in the heels of SIR which had deleted over nine million names from the state's voters' list.
Over the past year, more than 130 million names have disappeared from the voters' list, fuelling allegations that elections are being stolen across the country. Concern is rising that, if SIR is not stopped and scrapped altogether, the next scheduled parliament polls in 2029 could be severely compromised.
"PM Modi clearly knows he only won the election through vote chori and now he is hell-bent on protecting this fraud by completely crushing democracy," wrote Kejriwal. "Gyanesh must go, but so must Modi."
Elections, not agitation
It is becoming increasingly clear that, to a large segment of India's youth as well as major opposition parties, the current CEC's position is no longer tenable. But a fall for Gyanesh Kumar could expose Narendra Modi. The debate will then, inevitably lead to the unthinkable: can the Cockroach movement actually bring down Narendra Modi?
Some commentators in the region see a parallel with Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, where street movements spear-headed by youth brought down powerful governments. But such parallels have limitations.
Unlike these three neighbours, no government in India has ever been brought down by anything other than constitutional means (defeat at elections or loss of parliamentary majority.) Even in the darkest moment for India's democracy - the Emergency of 1975-77, it was not street agitation which ended Indira Gandhi's rule. Nor could Gandhi continue the Emergency indefinitely. She called general elections in March 1977, and the Indian public responded by handing Congress a crushing defeat.
India's federal structure ensures that political and administrative power are diffused throughout the country, with 28 states and some of the 8 Union territories run by their own assemblies and governments. India's opposition parties as well as the youthful CJP leaders are well aware that the federal government cannot be brought down by street movement in Delhi.
Long campaign to unseat Modi
The goal of the CJP appears to be to bring down the "shields" that protect Modi's power - and the Election Commission under Gyanesh Kumar is clearly one such key shield. Resignation of Kumar followed by cancellation of SIR and restoration of pre-SIR voters' list could upend many of the BJP's carefully laid plans.
The cockroach movement's impact could go beyond the Election Commission, by putting a major dent in Narendra Modi's aura of invincibility. Even though the BJP and its allies control the legislature in 22 states and Union territories, the loss of Modi's carefully-cultivated image could do incalculable damage to his party's prospects in the next elections.
Here lies the crunch. If the CJP's ultimate goal is to bring down the BJP government, then what they started in July with the Education Minister can be seen as the opening salvo in a long campaign to undermine Modi's image, his influence and ultimately, his sway over the voting public.
For that to happen, the role of the Election Commission would be crucial - not just for the opposition's success, but also for India's image on the world stage. Gyanesh Kumar's SIR has mired India's electoral system - the very foundation of its much-vaunted democracy, in controversy.
A tarnished voters' list means compromised elections, and India can ill-afford to see its democratic credentials dragged through the mud. Cockroaches may just succeed in pulling their country out of the mire.
The writer is a journalist and podcaster. Email: [email protected]. X handle: @Sabir59