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The Raiders didn’t draft Mendoza first overall to rescue their present. They drafted him to change their future.
Those two timelines are starting to inch toward each other, and a decision that seemed comfortably down the road during a 3-0 start could arrive much sooner than anticipated.
As a result, the next two weeks could go a long way in determining when the Raiders make the switch from veteran Kirk Cousins to Mendoza, the Indiana National Champion and Heisman Trophy winner and the quarterback the Raiders have every intention of becoming the face of their franchise.
After dropping two straight games, the sense within the organization is that those discussions are beginning to take shape. And if the next two weeks against the Bills and Rams bring more losses, the Raiders should be prepared to turn that conversation into action and hand their rookie quarterback the keys.
His development is too important to let valuable opportunities pass while waiting for circumstances that might never be perfect.
The plan was always to groom Mendoza behind Cousins this season. But the length of that apprenticeship had to depend on three things: the Raiders’ record, Mendoza’s readiness, and their ability to put a functional team around him.
The standings are becoming less favorable. The other two conditions increasingly look favorable enough.
That should move the conversation forward.
There is precedent for making such a decision before a team is mathematically eliminated, and for measuring its value beyond the immediate results.
The Giants were 5-4 when they replaced Kurt Warner with Eli Manning in November 2004. Manning lost his first six starts before winning the finale. A year later, he helped lead New York to an 11-5 record and the playoffs. Those difficult Sundays were part of his education.
The Patriots waited five games in 2024 before replacing Jacoby Brissett with Drake Maye. New England was 1-4 when Maye took over in Week 6. He made 12 starts that season, gaining experience before helping take the Patriots to the Super Bowl in his second year.
The Rams turned from Case Keenum to Jared Goff in Week 11 of 2016, with their record at 4-5. Goff lost all seven starts. The following season the Rams went 11-5 and won the NFC West.
Those turnarounds required more than rookie playing time. Coaching and supporting casts mattered, too.
But all three quarterbacks entered their second seasons having confronted problems that cannot be fully understood from a meeting room or sideline.
The argument for playing Mendoza rests on that distinction: difficult rookie Sundays can help prepare a quarterback for more meaningful ones.
Mendoza’s brief debut Sunday against the Patriots offered evidence that he is ready for the next stage.
Mendoza completed 6 of 8 passes, including two that resulted in first downs.
“He was prepared. He played fast. He got through his progressions quickly. He knew his hot issues. It was a solid start for him,” coach Klint Kubiak said.
A late appearance in a blowout does not prove Mendoza can handle everything a competitive NFL game demands.
It does suggest he is ready to start learning more of it firsthand.
“I think with any reps that you get, it’s going to make you better,” said Kubiak. “The live game reps are the best medicine, but him just getting time with our starting offensive line in an on-the-road environment was a very positive experience for him. Although it wasn’t for us.”
Kubiak supplied the argument himself.
The live game reps are the best medicine.
The Raiders also appear capable of administering them responsibly.
Their running game needs fixing. Their receiving corps needs help. But Brock Bowers gives Mendoza a premier target, and the offense has shown enough functionality to support a young quarterback.
An unfinished roster does not automatically make for a destructive environment.
The Raiders can improve the team around Mendoza while developing him.
And none of this requires making Cousins the villain.
He remains a capable veteran who could conceivably interest a contender needing quarterback help before the trade deadline. His usefulness and Mendoza’s need to play can coexist.
For now, Kubiak is sticking with Cousins while expressing confidence that Mendoza will be ready when called upon.
That is reasonable today.
It becomes harder to justify if the next two weeks bring more losses and the rookie continues demonstrating his readiness.
Mendoza’s development is central to this rebuild. There is only so much he can learn by watching someone else do the job.
If this season keeps slipping away, the Raiders must use what remains to prepare him for the next one.