Political forecaster VoteHub projects Democratic victories in 15 House races across states where President Donald Trump won in 2024, potentially giving the party a route to a majority in the midterm elections on November 3.
The contests will test whether dissatisfaction with the president can overcome Republican advantages built into parts of the congressional map.
Voters from suburban Arizona to Pennsylvania’s industrial communities and the heavily Hispanic 15th District of Texas could help decide control of the House.
Zachary Donnini, VoteHub’s head of data science, told Newsweek in a phone call that Trump’s standing with voters was the clearest factor connecting the 15 races.
“First and foremost, Donald Trump is an unpopular president,” Donnini said. “It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, that when we’re getting the national generic congressional polling that’s also very good for Democrats.”
“Midterms are usually tough for the party in power,” Donnini added, noting that no president’s party has retained the House in a first midterm since 2002.
VoteHub expects the movement to extend across the country, although not evenly.
“We expect pretty much the entire country to shift left,” Donnini said. “Some states by huge margins, some states by little margins, some states by medium margins.”
That does not necessarily mean the states themselves are becoming Democratic.
Donnini described the projected gains as “more of a reaction to the national environment.”
Meanwhile, Kyle Kondik, managing editor at political forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek in emailed comments that “this is going to be a much bluer year than 2024 was, perhaps a 10-point national swing to the left or so.”
He added: “It's natural that many districts and states that voted for the president are now very much in play in a bluer environment.”
Daniel Schatz, political scientist and former visiting scholar at Harvard, Stanford and Georgetown, said the significance lay partly in how widely Republicans may have to spread their resources.
“Fifteen projected Democratic wins in Republican-held or open seats across Trump-won states is meaningful, not because every one will flip, but because it suggests the Republican defensive map is broader than it should be in a normal cycle,” Schatz told Newsweek in an email.
Maps complicate the picture.
Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Harvard Law School professor specializing in election law, noted that North Carolina, Ohio and Texas redrew districts to help Republicans, while Utah created a Democratic district and Arizona, Iowa and Pennsylvania used what he described as reasonably fair processes.
If Democrats win the House popular vote by approximately 8 points, Stephanopoulos said, Republican gerrymandering would still create “a substantial pro-Republican skew,” but one that “just wouldn’t be big enough to maintain Republican control of the House.”
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Why It Matters
The midterm elections forecast suggests Democrats can compete well beyond blue states, although analysts cautioned that the races reflect different local circumstances rather than a uniform political realignment.
VoteHub gives Democrats an 84 percent chance of controlling the House, with its projection last updated on October 14.
Full List of Seats Democrats Are Favored to Flip
- Arizona 1st: Amish Shah (D) > Jay Feely (R)
- Arizona 6th: JoAnna Mendoza (D) > Juan Ciscomani (R)
- Iowa 1st: Christina Bohannan (D) > Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
- Iowa 3rd: Sarah Trone Garriott (D) > Zach Nunn (R)
- Michigan 7th: William Lawrence (D) > Tom Barrett (R)
- Michigan 10th: Christina Hines (D) > Mike Bouchard Jr (R)
- Nebraska 2nd: Denise Powell (D) > Brinker Harding (R)
- North Carolina 11th: Jamie Ager (D) > Jennifer Balkcom (R)
- Ohio 7th: Brian Poindexter (D) > Max Miller (R)
- Pennsylvania 7th: Bob Brooks (D) > Ryan Mackenzie (R)
- Pennsylvania 8th: Paige Cognetti (D) > Rob Bresnahan (R)
- Pennsylvania 10th: Janelle Stelson (D) > Scott Perry (R)
- Texas 15th: Bobby Pulido (D) > Monica De La Cruz (R)
- Utah 1st: Ben McAdams (D) > Riley Owen (R)
- Wisconsin 3rd: Rebecca Cooke (D) > Derrick Van Orden (R)
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Arizona’s Two Political Coalitions
Arizona’s 1st District: VoteHub favors Democrat Amish Shah over Republican Jay Feely in an affluent district centered around Scottsdale.
Donnini said comparatively wealthy white communities represented the kind of territory where Republicans were performing “least bad,” making the contest a demanding test of suburban movement.
Arizona’s 6th District: Democrat JoAnna Mendoza is projected to defeat Republican Juan Ciscomani.
The Tucson-area district also contains rural and heavily Hispanic communities, giving Democrats a different potential coalition from the one supporting Shah.
Dave Spencer, host of the Practically Political podcast, told Newsweek via email that Arizona and Texas would help show whether some Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 are moving back toward Democrats over immigration policy and living costs.
Iowa and Nebraska Expand the Battlefield
Iowa’s 1st District: VoteHub places Democrat Christina Bohannan ahead of Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks after Democrats came close in 2024.
Donnini included it among seven narrowly decided seats that represent the party’s “low-hanging fruit” in the battle for a majority. “And that’s basically what they need to flip the chamber,” he said.
Iowa’s 3rd District: Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott is favored over Republican Zach Nunn.
VoteHub sees Democrats gaining in agricultural and transportation-dependent regions exposed to higher fuel, trade and logistics costs, Donnini said.
Jim Ronan, adjunct professor of political science at Villanova University, said that the two Iowa races were strong indicators of the headwinds facing Republicans.
“The fact Iowa is so competitive highlights a significant shift in voter attitudes,” Ronan told Newsweek, while cautioning that some traditionally Republican voters could still “come home” by Election Day.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: VoteHub projects Democrat Denise Powell defeating Republican Brinker Harding in an open seat centered on Omaha.
Former Republican Representative Don Bacon repeatedly survived in competitive territory, but his retirement has transformed the race. Donnini called it “the single easiest flip on the list.”
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Democrats Seek To Reclaim Midwestern Ground
Michigan’s 7th District: Democrat William Lawrence is narrowly favored over Republican Tom Barrett.
Donnini expects a close contest despite the district’s tight presidential result, pointing to Barrett’s previous electoral performance and uncertainty about the relative strength of the Democratic candidate.
Michigan’s 10th District: VoteHub gives Democrat Christina Hines an advantage over Republican Mike Bouchard Jr.
The race could reveal whether a favorable Democratic environment reaches down the ballot even where local candidate considerations make the outcome less predictable.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District: Democrat Rebecca Cooke is projected to defeat Republican Derrick Van Orden.
The district was held by Democrats for years before moving into Republican hands. “This is Democrats kind of reclaiming turf,” Donnini said.
Pennsylvania’s Route To House Control
Pennsylvania’s 7th District: VoteHub favors Democrat Bob Brooks over Republican Ryan Mackenzie in one of three projected Democratic pickups in the state.
Pennsylvania’s 8th District: Democrat Paige Cognetti is placed ahead of Republican Rob Bresnahan.
With no presidential or Senate election at the top of Pennsylvania’s ballot, its closely fought House campaigns will provide a relatively direct measure of the congressional environment.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: VoteHub projects Democrat Janelle Stelson defeating Republican Scott Perry.
Schatz called the race a test of whether “a strongly partisan Republican can remain secure in a difficult national environment.”
Democrats narrowly lost all three districts in 2024. “Not winning them back would be a sign that they might struggle to flip the House,” Donnini said.
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Three Different Republican Vulnerabilities
North Carolina’s 11th District: Democrat Jamie Ager is favored over Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
Donnini expects the district to produce one of the earliest results among the 15 contests.
“If Democrats win North Carolina 11, it’s very likely to be a good night for them,” he said.
Ohio’s 7th District: VoteHub projects Democrat Brian Poindexter defeating Republican Max Miller in territory the GOP would normally expect to hold.
Ronan identified the race as a test of whether candidate-specific difficulties combined with a strong Democratic year could dislodge Republicans from an otherwise favorable district.
Texas’ 15th District: Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning musician, is favored against Republican Monica De La Cruz in a heavily Hispanic district that moved toward the GOP in recent elections.
Keith Gaddie, political scientist at Texas Christian University, said people he had spoken to during a recent visit to the South Texas area were focused on “kitchen-table economic issues,” producing difficult headwinds for the incumbent.
A sufficiently large Democratic wave could even turn the Texas gerrymander into a “dummymander,” Gaddie said, meaning Republican voters had been distributed too thinly across the new districts to protect every intended seat.
Utah’s Redistricting Exception
Utah’s 1st District: VoteHub projects Democrat Ben McAdams defeating Republican Riley Owen, although the contest differs fundamentally from the other 14.
“This district is kind of a fake flip because it was completely redrawn by the courts,” Donnini said, explaining that the new boundaries transformed safely Republican territory into a district Democrats would ordinarily expect to win.
Schatz said such boundary changes were a reason not to compare each race mechanically with the 2024 results.
“Redistricting is essential context,” he said. “The correct question is not simply whether Democrats are ahead in Trump-won states, but whether they are outperforming the partisan baseline of the districts as currently drawn.”
What Happens Next
Forecasts can shift as campaigning, advertising and new polling provide more information.
Schatz cautioned that “a forecast is not a poll, and certainly not an election result,” because district models depend on assumptions about turnout, candidate quality and the national mood.
Spencer offered a political version of the same warning: Republican losses driven by dissatisfaction with Trump would not necessarily represent lasting enthusiasm for the opposition.
“Opposition to Trump doesn’t automatically translate into support for Democrats,” he said, “and that’s the risk in assuming these seats will flip.”
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins