The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply revised its estimates for Romania’s economy this month, forecasting a recession this year and a slower recovery in 2027 than initially expected, according to data analyzed by Profit.ro.
Romania’s economy is now expected to shrink by 0.5% in 2026, compared with growth of 0.7% estimated in the spring. The new estimate is in line with that of the World Bank, which was also recently revised downward.
At the same time, the IMF anticipated economic growth of 2.2% in 2027 for Romania, compared with the previously estimated 2.5% increase. The current account deficit is similarly expected to widen to 7% of GDP in 2026, up 0.2% from the previous forecast, and narrow to 6.7% of GDP next year.
Labor market conditions are also expected to deteriorate, with the unemployment rate forecast to rise to 6.5% this year, compared with 6.1% in 2025 and the previously projected rate of 6% forecast by the IMF.
Globally, the IMF has kept its forecast for growth of 3.1% in 2026 unchanged, noting the positive demand-side effect of investments in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure and hardware equipment.
Global economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027, very close to the 3.5% increase recorded last year. However, the IMF warns that the apparent stability of the global economy actually masks a redistribution of growth among countries, depending on their exposure to the supply shock caused by wars and the intensity of demand associated with artificial intelligence.
“Currently, 32 economies generate 95% of global growth, compared with 54 economies in April, while downward revisions have become more frequent, affecting approximately 47% of economies,” according to the report.
Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, will continue to impact trade relations and economic activity, according to the IMF. The negative supply shock generated by the war is spreading through the economy via higher and more volatile energy prices, as well as their impact on inflation dynamics.
“So far, the private sector appears to have adapted well to the geopolitical shocks caused by direct conflicts and trade disputes. However, as short periods of calm alternate with waves of attacks in a prolonged and protracted conflict, some of the adjustment mechanisms that protected the global economy in the initial phase — based on the assumption that hostilities would be short-lived — are narrowing, and the risk of higher economic costs is becoming increasingly evident,” the report also stated.