Why is Egypt so wary of getting involved in Yemen’s conflict?

Egyptian forces arrived in Yemen in the thousands, backing the country’s government in a civil war against rebels that threatened to overthrow it.

But this is not today’s war – this is 1962, and the Egyptians were supporting republican forces in North Yemen against the country’s royalists. The intervention came after Yemenis who were friendlier to the Arab nationalist ideology propagated by Egypt under President Gamal Abdel Nasser led a revolution that overthrew Zaidi Imam Mohammad al-Badr – a theocratic monarch.

Although the republican side was ultimately successful in the war against the Saudi-backed royalists, Egyptian forces withdrew in the wake of their defeat in the 1967 war against Israel, and after also suffering heavy losses in Yemen.

Suggestions of a new military intervention by Egypt in Yemen today, after comments by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, are therefore bringing back memories of that period for Egyptians.

Following some backlash against the suggestion of direct military intervention, el-Sisi emphasised on Wednesday that any military deployment would be focused on defending Saudi Arabia, and would not involve any direct aggression against Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

And on Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for a political solution to the conflict.

What has the Egyptian government said it will do?

After Saudi Arabia came under more intense attacks from the Houthis, including a strike on King Khalid international airport in Riyadh which killed 13 people, including one Egyptian, earlier this month, it appears that the kingdom expects support from its longtime allies, including Egypt.

Some countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, France and the United Kingdom, have already deployed forces to Saudi Arabia in defensive operations or have indicated they are willing to do so.

Saudi Arabia has faced repeated Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks as the war in Yemen escalated over the past few months, particularly after a Saudi-backed Yemeni government counteroffensive against the Houthis began in early October. Saudi Arabia has supported a counteroffensive by forces allied to the internationally recognised government, with air raids against the Houthis.

Egypt’s National Defence Council said on October 18 the country was ready to provide “all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its safety and stability”.

While much has been made of the possibility of an Egyptian deployment, Cairo has repeatedly made it clear that it has no intention of involving itself in direct attacks against the Houthis.

But even a defensive combat mission would involve the deployment of Egyptian forces outside the country’s borders, so it requires approval from the Egyptian parliament. A vote is scheduled for Monday, after a weeklong delay to allow reticent lawmakers to deliberate on this move.

Why is Egypt wary of becoming involved in Yemen?

This apprehension over military involvement in Yemen is largely related to the Egyptian government’s desire to avoid foreign military entanglements and direct involvement in the US-Israel war on Iran and its allies.

Active participation in attacks against the Houthis could open Egypt up to retaliation by the group or Iran. The Houthis have already shown they are capable of pinpoint attacks on vital civilian and military targets in Saudi Arabia.

An expansion of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping – both Egyptian and otherwise – would also be highly damaging to Egypt’s economy, as the country controls its northern entry point, the Suez Canal, and is heavily reliant on this waterway for trade.

Fewer ships passing through the Red Sea means fewer fees paid to the Egyptian government for their passage through the Suez Canal. El-Sisi has said Egypt has already lost $20bn in potential revenues over the last few years due to regional instability, including previous attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Disruptions to energy supplies via the Bab al-Mandeb now, which the Houthis effectively control, would likely lead to higher oil prices and knock-on effects for net consumers such as Egypt.

There is also the historical aspect. While Egypt can argue that its intervention in Yemen in the 1960s was an overall success, with the Republican side eventually emerging victorious, the campaign in mountainous northwestern Yemen was brutal. Thousands of Egyptian soldiers were killed in the campaign, and this was blamed by some for the Egyptian military’s lack of readiness in confronting Israel in the 1967 war.

“There is the memory that [Egypt] went to Yemen and faced forces supported by Saudi Arabia, and Egyptian troops were killed there,” said Ahmad Dahshan, the editor-in-chief of the Center of Arabic Eurasian Studies. “Then [the mentality is] that Egypt will send troops to Yemen once again, where they would also be killed, but this time on behalf of Saudi Arabia.”

How could Egypt support Saudi Arabia?

While Egypt has not detailed what “defensive” military assistance it could provide, judging by the support supplied by other countries aiding Saudi Arabia, this could include operating air defence equipment and interceptors to protect the kingdom from missiles and drones or guarding sensitive sites.

Even this could lead to the deaths of foreign soldiers, as Houthi strikes have so far targeted sites in Saudi Arabia they perceive to be strategically important, including those that Egyptian personnel could be deployed to.

There is also potential for naval assistance in the Red Sea to protect shipping, and forces stationed on the Saudi-Yemeni border to reinforce security there, which have also been targets.

“These troops would only be deployed, if they are deployed at all, to contribute to the protection of Saudi territory,” Dahshan said. “The discussion this time may be taking place because there is a possibility of ground troops being deployed to protect the Saudi border against any attempted Houthi incursion.”

How important is foreign support for Yemen?

Egypt was officially part of the Saudi-led coalition to restore the Yemeni government in 2015, but played only a limited role in operations. However, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played decisive roles during the war, with other countries such as Sudan at times contributing fighters on the ground.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE not only conducted heavy bombing campaigns against the Houthis, but also had forces in the country coordinating with the Yemeni military and anti-Houthi groups. This exposed both countries to Houthi attacks.

But some Yemenis on the anti-Houthi side blame foreign forces, in particular the UAE, for undermining the independence of the Yemeni government. The UAE was allegedly a major supporter of the Southern Transitional Council, and was eventually forced out of Yemen at the start of the year following a Saudi-backed Yemeni government push to defeat southern secessionists.

While Saudi air support has been a huge advantage for Yemeni government forces over the Houthis, many observers say that the pro-government side does not need additional manpower on the ground.

“The Yemeni government just needs political support and economic support, and that has been the case since the war started,” said Mohammed al-Qadhi, an independent Yemeni political and conflict analyst. “The Yemeni government has enough fighters … it lacks weapons and economic support, as well as logistical and technical support. It needs better coordination and command and control for the forces on the ground.”

As for the prospect of any Egyptian involvement, al-Qadhi said many Yemenis remain indebted to Egypt for the support it has provided the republic in the past.

“Yemenis still cherish the Egyptian role with pride and respect … Without the Egyptian role and Nasser’s support, the republic would not have existed,” al-Qadhi said. “The Houthis recall history and how the Egyptian support in defending the republic was vital … though I dismiss a similar role for the Egyptian army today.”