The US wants to lead the humanoid robot race. Its own trade rules may keep it from showing up to the starting line.
Market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that US humanoid robot revenue will land 58% below where it otherwise would have been by 2030. The firm attributes the shortfall to Washington’s trade restrictions, which wall off the American market from the country that builds most of these machines.
That country is China. According to IDC, Chinese vendors accounted for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments in the first half of 2026.
What the FCC rules actually do
The trigger is a set of Federal Communications Commission regulations that take effect starting July 28, 2026. Under the new framework, foreign advanced robotic devices, including humanoids and four-legged quadruped robots, are classified as covered technology on national security grounds.
IDC’s forecast shows the damage arriving quickly. US humanoid revenue is projected to sit 41% below baseline in 2027, then widen to 58% below baseline by 2030.
Worth stressing: these figures measure lost growth, not a market collapse. IDC is comparing a restricted future against the one the industry would have had without the rules.
IDC estimates that cumulative foregone US revenue across all robotic categories will exceed $6 billion between 2026 and 2030, with more than $2 billion of that projected for 2030 alone.
The broader American robotics sector takes a hit too. IDC expects annual US robotics growth to slow from about 13% to about 9%.
Why humanoids get hit hardest
Not every robot category suffers equally. Household cleaning robots are projected to be only 18% below baseline by 2030.
Humanoids face a far steeper drop for three reasons, according to IDC. The category is new, models turn over rapidly, and comparatively few units have been pre-certified.
The supply side makes the problem worse. The leading humanoid suppliers in the first half of 2026 were Chinese: AgiBot shipped about 8,600 units, while Unitree shipped about 5,000 units, per IDC’s data.
Meanwhile, US vendors are not expected to reach mass production until late 2028.
The global market keeps growing without the US
IDC actually raised its global forecast, now expecting humanoid shipments to exceed 750,000 units by 2030. The machines that would have gone to US customers are being diverted, primarily to Europe.
The research also points to a structural contradiction. The US robotics sector continues to rely heavily on critical components from Chinese suppliers, which IDC suggests undermines the intent of the regulations.
What this means for the robotics industry
With domestic mass production not expected until late 2028, American companies have a window where customers may delay purchases rather than switch suppliers.
Europe looks positioned as the immediate beneficiary of diverted shipments. More humanoid units flowing into European markets means more real-world deployment data, more integration experience and more operator familiarity accumulating outside the US.
For Chinese vendors like AgiBot and Unitree, the US restrictions close off a large potential market, but IDC’s raised global forecast implies demand elsewhere is absorbing the volume. A 95% share of global shipments is not the profile of an industry struggling to find buyers.
Investors and operators should track whether US vendors hit the late 2028 mass production target, whether IDC’s 41% shortfall for 2027 holds as the rules bed in, and whether Washington moves to address the component dependency that the forecast flags.
The broader slowdown in US robotics growth, from about 13% to about 9% annually, also bears watching. That revision covers more than just humanoids, suggesting the FCC rules ripple across categories well beyond the walking, talking machines grabbing headlines.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.