Australia’s AI data centre ambitions have gone from flying high to trench warfare in a matter of weeks since the failed Firmus IPO.
In the last 24 hours, three key players jockeying for position have seen dramatic turnarounds for better and worse, as the political heat was also turned up.
On Wednesday, ASX-listed NextDC lost $3 billion in market value, while Firmus faces fresh pressures over meeting the deadlines for its OpenAI commitments, and independent senator David Pocock is keen to introduce 5% levy on local data centre revenue, believing it could raise $500 million over four years.
Meanwhile, at the Nvidia’s European love-in overnight, a new contender has stepped into the ring, with local infrastructure developer WinDC becoming Jensen Huang’s new bestie in the chip maker’s Australian ambitions, WinDC has plans for 230MW of next-generation DSX Pod AI factories in 2027.
Melbourne meltdown
To NextDC first. Its shares fell 41.7% on Wednesday after the company slashed its FY27 forecasts following delays to electricity upgrades at its M3 Melbourne data centre. NextDC removed approximately $140 million in anticipated revenue from affected contracts from its FY27 guidance, cutting its net revenue forecast to $475–500 million.
The company is pausing projects without customer contracts, reviewing spending and considering selling development sites. A planning decision on further M3 stages is expected after Victoria’s November 28 election.
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The issue blew up last month when 15-metre-high power poles began appearing in residential areas in Melbourne’s inner west, sparking a vehement backlash and protests.
Distributor Jemena has suspended parts of the network works, citing community opposition, safety and access concerns, and the absence of council consent while consultation continues. The next increase in power supply is now expected in FY28.
NextDC’s setback puts a dollar value on the problem soaring capacity forecasts obscure: contracted demand is not aligned with electricity demands and community acceptance. It’s an issue already running hot in the US ahead of the midterm elections.
Pocock’s payment plan
Against that backdrop, Senator David Pocock wants a bigger slice of the AI goldrush in Australia’s national coffers.
At the National Press Club, the former Wallabies captain accused the government of being “starstruck” by foreign AI companies and proposed a 5% levy on data centre revenue.
Pocock’s plan would kick off on January 1, 2027, covering facilities with an energised IT load above 5MW. Owner-operated hyperscale facilities would be taxed using a deemed revenue calculation.
Pocock says it could raise around $500 million by 2030. It’s a flyer, but one with the potential to harness widespread support amid broader community anger about data centres. and because it targets revenue, operators would still have to pay the levy even while posting losses and paying no income tax.
Firmus finis
Meanwhile, the AFR reports that Firmus risks losing flagship customer OpenAI if its Malaysian data centre campus is significantly delayed, as it urgency hunts for billions in capital it failed to nail in the abandoned ASX float.
To quote the Fin: “Under the agreement, details of which have been circulated to some investors, OpenAI can ‘“’terminate the [agreement] in connection with material delivery delays or other material breaches that are not remedied within [time]’.”
The OpenAI involves leasing infrastructure from two sites near Kuala Lumpur from September next year. That clock is ticking alongside the one over who’ll control the company by the end of 2026 if it doesn’t list. Under the Firmus pre-IPO funding deal, failure to list by November 30 would give Nvidia, Blackstone, Coatue and other backers extra shares, strengthening their grip on the company and diluting the founders.
WinDC windfall
Enter WinDC’s announcement overnight, claiming a new miracle cure for construction and power bottlenecks.
The Australian company is targeting 230MW of modular AI computing capacity across regional Australia during 2027, up from an initial 11MW program announced in March.
Its US partner Armada is among those Nvidia chose to deliver DSX Pod AI factories, For anyone keeping score of Huang’s Australian BFFs, there is another name to pencil in, albeit via a swipe right unveiled in Berlin.
The designs use Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin architecture, assembled and tested before shipment. Nvidia says deployment can fall from six months to as little as 14 days at a “prepared site”.
The devil is in that detail: power, cooling and supporting infrastructure must already be in place.
WinDC says it will connect behind the meter at generation sites, using electricity that would otherwise be wasted and avoiding lengthy grid-connection queues. Customers supply Nvidia hardware, Armada provides the modular facilities, and WinDC handles land, power and operations.
“The race is won on time to power,” founder and CEO Andrew Sjoquist said.
WinDC commissioned its first Armada unit in January. The 230MW ambition is added to a loft pile of capacity targets announced by multiple players and site details have yet to be announced
After NextDC’s troubles, the appeal of arriving with the juice sorted is obvious. But who can deliver that at scale without communities revolting remains the challenge.