DALLAS — John Berry, a Republican county chairman from Jacksboro, Texas, had a blunt explanation for his decision to show up to this year’s first-ever GOP midterm convention: his own serious concerns about Republican “voter apathy” surrounding this year’s GOP Senate nominee, state attorney general Ken Paxton.
“Our top-of-the-ticket candidate doesn’t inspire as much enthusiasm as I would like, and so I want to do what I can to stir up more enthusiasm to get people to come out and vote,” he told me from the convention floor on September 10. I asked him whether the Republican voters he speaks to are planning to split their tickets in this year’s elections, choosing to back GOP governor Greg Abbott’s reelection but swinging Democratic for the Senate race.
“No, it’s not that they’re going to split the ticket,” Berry explained. “They’re just not going to vote.”
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Berry is one of many Texas Republicans who have spent recent weeks panicking over the ultra-competitive Senate race in what should be reliably red Texas, where 37-year-old state representative and 2026 Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico has spent the past few months out-hustling, out-fundraising, and out-polling his 63-year-old GOP opponent. Republicans are now sweating over polls that have shown Talarico with a consistent lead for weeks—currently just over two points in the Real Clear Politics average, which suggests that the race is at best a jump ball for Republicans. Fear is setting in that Paxton’s many personal scandals, and voters’ frustrations with high gas prices, will depress Republican turnout in a Senate race that is crucial to protecting the GOP’s current 53-seat majority.