Ohio could decide control of the Senate. Its rural voters might decide the winner

At the weekday farmers market in Athens, Ohio, colorful vegetables are on display for patrons to purchase, community members interact with each other and vendors and one another. It feels like most people in attendance know one another on some personal level.

For a small town like Athens, the farmers market is a gathering place.

"Our Saturday markets have been fully at capacity," said Paige Walters, the Athens farmers market promotions manager.

Athens, Ohio is home to Ohio University. The city is, like many college towns, pretty liberal. But that's not the case in most of the Appalachian communities in the region.

Walters noticed that this year, for the first time in a while, the Athens County Republican Party has set up a table at the market.

"I think that does speak to the political climate right now – that it's pretty competitive," she said.

Despite its past as a swing state, Ohio is now considered to be reliably Republican. This election is a little different. With toss-up races for governor and U.S. Senate, Democrats have a chance to win statewide.

But if Democrats want to win, they have to capture voters who voted for Republicans in the past. That includes the rural Ohio voter base, which historically leans conservative.

While rural voters nationwide have voted red in the past (they backed Trump in 2024 by 40 points), recent polling has shown his approval rating in rural America dropping dramatically amid high inflation, tariffs and the war in Iran.

Democrats are trying to gain ground in the unexpected areas. That's especially true in the competitive Senate match up between Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican nominee, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown as both candidates invest in outreach to rural parts of the state.

"There's a lot of people in rural Ohio that are not happy, whether it's gas prices, diesel prices, the tariffs, the war," Matthew White of Athens told NPR at the farmers market.

Affordability top of mind

Multicolored bell peppers, onions and squash line the table at the Cowdery Farms booth. While the weekday market usually has slower foot traffic, farmer Larry Cowdery sold a good amount of produce.

He owns a small vegetable farm along the Ohio River in Long Bottom. There are two big concerns at the top of Cowdrey's mind. The first is the cost of healthcare.

"The big, big issue that we run into is since we're self-employed, we have to find health insurance somewhere," he told NPR. "It's going to be much more expensive next year."

Healthcare premiums on the Affordable Care Act marketplace are expected to increase by roughly 15% in Ohio, in part because of the expiration of federal subsidies. Republicans, including Husted, voted to eliminate the subsidies under the Trump-backed "One Big Beautiful Bill." As a result of sticker shock, Ohio saw the biggest drop — tied with Oklahoma for the most in the nation — in the number of people enrolled in the marketplace last year, with a nearly 33% decline in enrollment.

Cowdery's second concern is the survival of his multigenerational family farm. It's becoming too expensive to run. He said the cost of electricity and gasoline is a big factor. Plus, he relies on fertilizer to grow his vegetables.

"I'm not convinced we're even going to be able to get fertilizer next year," Cowdery said.

That's because of the war in Iran. Most of the nitrogen used in fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping channel in the Middle East controlled by Iran. Travel through the Strait has been volatile.

As a result of the healthcare and business hardships, Cowdery isn't keen on voting Republican this year. He added that he hasn't been happy with the Republican-led Ohio legislature for the last few years and he doesn't like Husted, either.

"I don't trust Jon Husted at all. I think he's a crook," Cowdery said.

Dean Ferrell is at the farmers market chatting with people and milling around the market. The 62-year-old man, a lifelong resident of Athens, said the cost of gas, utilities and groceries have become burdensome. He has had to cut back on buying certain foods because he can't afford it.

"I mean, who would ever thought you'd be paying ten bucks a pound for ground beef? That used to be filet mignon prices, not ground beef," he said.

Ferrell tried to look on the upside of his financial reality. Since he's older, Ferrell said he doesn't eat as much as he used to, so he can save some money that way. He added that he wishes politicians could spend "a week or two living like I do."

"Their attitude would be a lot different. I mean, I gotta save money wherever I can, buy reduced and on sale items," Ferrell said. "There's very few things that I pay full price for. You got to, to survive."

Ferrell considers himself to be an independent. While he hasn't decided who to vote for the Senate, Ferrell said he is leaning toward Husted. He doesn't like the direction the Democratic party is headed.

"The far left has basically hijacked the Democrat Party," he said.

A farmer's frustration

On a crisp fall day in rural central Ohio, farmer Chris Gibbs climbs into his John Deere utility terrain vehicle, setting out to survey his land.

"It started in 1983 on our own with $2,500, a pickup truck and a two-year-old daughter," Gibbs said with a chuckle. "So we built that up to 560 acres."

Gibbs, a first generation farmer in Shelby County, grows corn, soybeans, alfalfa hay and has a few dozen cows.

Farming is a tough industry at the best of times. Farms are at the behest of market fluctuations, domestic policy, international relations and mother nature. Tack on high fuel and fertilizer prices, along with Trump's tariffs and the cost of production exceeds the profit.

Sitting in his huge combine that used to harvest corn and soybeans, Gibbs said the diesel fuel to run the machinery has increased 50% under the Trump administration and the war in Iran. He fills up the combine about seven times during the harvest season.

"I think about 150 gallons at $7 is $1,000, and that'll run a day and a half," Gibbs said. "That'd be $7,000 worth of diesel fuel."

Politically, farmers tend to vote Republican. Gibbs was one of those Republicans at one point. In a past life, he was the chair of the Shelby County Republicans. He voted for Trump in 2016.

"I'm looking at certainly, buyer's remorse," Gibbs said about voting for Trump.

Gibbs couldn't stand behind Trump's character, his persona on the global stage or the punitive tariffs he said hurt "United States of America's soft underbelly," referring to agriculture. He moved away from Trump in 2018.

Now, in 2026, Gibbs is the chair of the Ohio Democratic Party Rural Caucus and he wants to send Democrat Sherrod Brown back to the Senate.

Brown, Gibbs argued, has the experience necessary to represent rural Ohioans at the federal level.

"We're going to get Sherrod Brown across the line. I have complete confidence in that," Gibbs said.

No career politicians

At a Republican Party event in Guysville, Melissa Jant said she doesn't want a career politician representing her in Congress and that's exactly how she views Brown.

"I absolutely do not want Sherrod Brown back in there. He was there for 30 years. We saw the policies that he put in place. He ran the country down. He ran Ohio down. We just need new blood in there," she told NPR.

Her displeasure toward Brown isn't just because he is a Democrat. Some voters view him as the establishment, despite not being a lawmaker anymore.

Jimmy Williams of Monroe County feels similarly. He said Brown was voted out and shouldn't try and head back to his old stomping grounds. Instead, Williams views Husted as the anti-establishment candidate, despite the fact that he is a sitting senator.

"He's a first-term senator there, and he hasn't even been in there long enough to do everything that they're saying on television," Williams said about ads aimed at Husted. "And people need to be smart enough to look through that."

Bob Rouch, of Washington County told NPR he is optimistic that Ohio will stay Republican. He believes Trump has done a lot of good for the county and "it's Ohio's responsibility to keep up with that." If Democrats win control, Rouch thinks they won't doing anything aside from target Trump.

"We're going to have these damn investigations, these attempted impeachments and all the baloney that we went through," he said, referring to the last time Democrats controlled Congress while Trump was president.

Williams argued preserving Republican control of Congress is the goal right now.

"America is at risk," Williams said.