The Short Version
In short: Your LatAm expat and nomad daily guide for Tuesday, 13 October 2026. Panama is still recovering from Friday’s magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with a state of emergency in force and all schools shut on Monday. Hurricane Simon is forecast to weaken to Category 1 and cross Mexico’s coast near Mazatlán around midnight at the start of Thursday 15 October. Argentina publishes September inflation today at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time. Prediction markets price a Flávio Bolsonaro win of Brazil’s presidency near 87% (bets, not polls).
01
Panama: the quake’s aftermath. Authorities counted no deaths and about 27 minor injuries, but hundreds of damaged schools. Our report on the state of emergency sets out what changes.
02
Mexico: Simon moves north. The hurricane stays off the coast on Tuesday, and Mexico’s weather service points to Sinaloa on Thursday. Our update on Simon has the latest.
03
Peru: runoff moved to 6 December. The electoral court pushed the regional second round back by a week. Our expat guide to the runoffs now carries the new date.
What changed since yesterday Monday was a holiday in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia, so official fixings did not move. Mexico’s peso recovered about 0.8% on Monday, to 18.263 per US dollar, from 18.41 on Friday. Peru’s electoral court has moved the regional runoff from 29 November to 6 December.
00The LatAm Expat Nomad Daily Guide Status Board
| Story | Yesterday | Now | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane Simon | Category 3 (Mon, 6 a.m.) | Category 2 (Mon afternoon) | Weaker, track moving north |
| Panama schools | Closed nationwide on Monday | Closed Tuesday; public schools reopen from Wednesday | Gradual reopening |
| Brazil PTAX (sell) | Thu 8 Oct: 5.0119 | Fri 9 Oct: 4.9892 (latest) | No fixing on the holiday |
| Mexico peso (RT close) | Fri 9 Oct: 18.41 | Mon 12 Oct: 18.263 | Peso firmer |
| Chile observado | Fri 9 Oct: 981.61 | Tue 13 Oct: 978.61 | Peso firmer |
| Argentina: official vs blue (sell) | Official: 1,535 (Fri) | Blue: 1,540 (Mon) | Gap about 0.3% |
01Getting Around
Panama: the aftermath of the earthquake. The US Geological Survey (USGS) measured Friday’s quake at magnitude 7.7, at 12:56 p.m. Panama time, near Pitaloza Arriba on the Azuero peninsula. Panama’s civil protection agency Sinaproc reported no deaths and about 27 people with minor injuries at the first count. The government counted at least 419 damaged schools on Saturday, and Sinaproc’s bulletin of 11 October listed more than 600 education centres.
Schools, flights and the Metro. State schools stay closed on Tuesday and reopen gradually from Wednesday 14 October, and private schools may reopen after inspection, according to Panamanian media. Tocumen airport paused take-offs and landings during aftershocks and resumed operations on Friday afternoon, and Panamanian media reported that Metro lines 1 and 2 were running again by 11 October. Check your airline and the Metro’s own channels before you travel.
Mexico’s Pacific coast: Hurricane Simon. At 6 a.m. Monday Simon was a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph), about 80 km (50 miles) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco. By Monday afternoon the US National Hurricane Center rated it Category 2, with winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) about 75 miles (120 km) west of Cabo Corrientes. Mexico’s weather service expects it to weaken to Category 1 and re-enter land near Mazatlán, Sinaloa, around midnight at the start of Thursday 15 October, according to Mexican press reports of its forecast.
On Monday afternoon the hurricane centre kept a hurricane warning for the Marías Islands and a hurricane watch from Cabo Corrientes to Bahía Tempehuaya in Sinaloa. Warnings change with each bulletin. Puerto Vallarta airport was due to reopen at 8 a.m. on Monday, and airlines expected to resume flights gradually from Monday afternoon; we could not confirm its status this morning. Our checklist for foreigners sets out what to prepare.
Brazil: loud weeks, normal days. Campaigning continues until the runoff on Sunday 25 October, 12 days away. Foreign residents do not vote.
02Cost of Living & Money
Each measure is labelled, and dates differ by country. Brazil’s PTAX and Argentina’s official rate are Friday’s figures because Monday was a holiday; Chile’s observado (the central bank’s reference rate) is the figure in force on Tuesday; Mexico and Peru are Monday market closes from RT, a market-data provider, not official fixings.
Brazil. The PTAX fixing (the central bank’s reference dollar rate) was 4.9892 reais to sell on Friday 9 October, and the central bank published none on Monday’s holiday. It was 4.9859 on Monday 5 October and peaked at 5.0119 on Thursday 8 October. At 4.9892, R$1,000 is about US$200. IBGE, the statistics institute, reported on Friday 9 October that official inflation (IPCA) rose 0.82% in September and 4.58% over 12 months. The RT calendar lists the seasonally adjusted monthly rise as 0.88%. The 12-month rate is above the 4.5% top of the central bank’s target range (3% with a 1.5-point tolerance). Our rent and power-bill guide has the detail.
Mexico. The dollar closed at 18.263 pesos on Monday 12 October, down from 18.41 on Friday 9 October. It is not the official FIX rate (Banxico’s daily reference rate). At 18.263, MXN 10,000 is about US$548. Our explainer covers the cause of Friday’s slide.
Chile. The dólar observado is 978.61 pesos for Tuesday 13 October, against 981.61 on Friday 9 October, according to the central bank series published by mindicador.cl. At 978.61, CLP 1,000,000 is about US$1,022.
Colombia. The TRM (the official representative rate) is 3,194.44 pesos per dollar, in force from Saturday 10 October until Tuesday 13 October. It was 3,218.75 on Friday. At 3,194.44, COP 1,000,000 is about US$313.
Argentina. DolarApi shows the official Banco Nación rate at 1,485 to buy and 1,535 to sell (Friday’s quote, unchanged over the holiday). The blue (informal market rate) is 1,520 and 1,540 on Monday evening, and the CCL (contado con liquidación, a rate for dollars bought through securities) is 1,605.5 and 1,606.6. ARS 1,000,000 is about US$651 at the official sell rate and about US$622 at the CCL sell rate. ArgentinaDatos puts country risk (the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds) at 589 points on Monday 12 October.
Peru. We could not obtain SUNAT’s (the tax authority’s) rate. The market close was 3.4401 soles per dollar on Monday 12 October, and banks quote their own rates. At 3.4401, PEN 1,000 is about US$291.
The wider picture. Brazil’s dollar rate moved within a narrow band last week, from 4.9698 to 5.0119 reais, while Mexico’s peso swung from 17.98 on 7 October to 18.41 on 9 October and back to 18.26. One week does not set a trend, and currencies often overshoot after news and then settle.
03Visas, Residency & Tax
Colombia: 18 days left. Foreigners holding a permanent-resident visa issued under earlier rules must transfer it before 31 October 2026, the Foreign Ministry has reiterated. The process is online; the ministry advises using its official site without intermediaries. Our earlier explainer sets out who is affected.
Peru: regional runoff on 6 December. The electoral court (JNE) moved the second round of the regional elections from Sunday 29 November to Sunday 6 December, after the vote office ONPE said it needed another week, according to Gestión. A runoff takes place only where no governor ticket reached 30% of valid votes, and press counts put at least 11 regions in that position, and up to 15 on later projections; the list is not final. Foreign residents cannot vote for governors.
Panama: the US$300,000 investor visa. Our explainer on the 15 October date sets out the real-estate threshold and what the 2024 decree said. Check the current rules with Panama’s immigration service or a licensed lawyer before you commit money.
Brazil: foreigners and the runoff. Only Brazilian citizens vote. A Datafolha poll released on 8 October (2,520 interviews, 6 to 8 October, margin of error 2 points) put Flávio Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45% in the runoff. Polls are snapshots. Our runoff guide covers the practical side.
04What Prediction Markets Say
Brazil’s presidency. Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 87.3% and Lula at 12.5% to win (US$180.4 million traded). Stand: 13 October, 00:42 ET.
Argentina’s September inflation. Polymarket prices a monthly rate of 1.9% to 2.1% at 61.5%, 1.6% to 1.8% at 30.0% and 2.2% to 2.4% at 7.8% (US$31,980 traded). Stand: 13 October, 00:42 ET.
Mexico’s central bank in November. Polymarket prices no change at 77.0% and a 0.25-point cut at 17.5% (US$53,377 traded). Stand: 13 October, 00:42 ET.
Hurricane Simon’s strength. Polymarket’s market on how strong Simon will be prices Category 4 at 97.2% (US$17,553 traded), and Simon did reach that level at its peak. Stand: 13 October, 00:42 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05The Calendar Ahead
Tue 13 OctArgentina’s Inflation Rate for September from INDEC at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time (August: 1.7% for the month; the RT calendar forecast is 1.9% for the month and 33.3% over 12 months, against 33.5% in August).
Wed 14 – Thu 15 OctHurricane Simon may re-enter land in southern Sinaloa, according to Mexico’s weather service. Forecasts may change.
Thu 15 OctSeptember inflation in the Dominican Republic and Ecuador, and Peru’s September unemployment rate, according to the RT economic calendar.
Thu 22 OctMexico’s mid-October inflation at 6 a.m. Mexico City time (the RT calendar forecast is 0.3% for the fortnight).
Fri 23 OctBrazil’s October mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) at 9 a.m. São Paulo time (the RT calendar forecast is 4.6% over 12 months, against 4.47% before).
Sun 25 OctBrazil’s presidential runoff, with voting from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time.
Sat 31 OctColombia’s deadline to transfer older permanent-resident visas.
Tue 3 – Wed 4 NovBrazil’s central bank sets its Selic rate (Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, now 13.75%).
Sun 6 DecPeru’s regional runoffs, if the final count confirms them.
Dates come from official calendars and the RT economic calendar; forecasts are not ours. The region does not move as one block, and each release can push a currency either way.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Hurricane Simon expected to make landfall?
Mexico’s weather service expects Simon, a Category 3 hurricane on Monday morning and Category 2 by Monday afternoon, to weaken to Category 1 and re-enter land near Mazatlán, Sinaloa, around midnight at the start of Thursday 15 October 2026. Rain of 75 to 150 millimetres is forecast for southern Sinaloa and northern Nayarit on Wednesday. Forecast points can shift, so check the latest official bulletin.
How badly did the earthquake hit Panama?
Sinaproc reported no deaths, about 27 people with minor injuries and damage to hundreds of schools after the magnitude 7.7 quake of Friday 9 October 2026. The government declared a state of emergency on Saturday 10 October, and all schools were closed on Monday 12 October. The final damage count is not yet known.
When does Argentina publish its September 2026 inflation?
INDEC, Argentina’s statistics institute, publishes September consumer prices on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 4 p.m. Buenos Aires time. August’s monthly rate was 1.7%. The RT calendar forecast of 1.9% is a forecast, not a result.
Connected Coverage
- Panama Declares State of Emergency After 7.7 Quake
- Panama Closes All Schools Monday After 7.7 Quake
- Hurricane Simon Skirts Jalisco, Sinaloa Is Next
- Hurricane Simón: Checklist for Foreigners in Mexico
- Peru Regional Runoffs: Expat Guide
- Argentina Inflation Due Tuesday After 1.7% in August
- Mexican Peso Falls Past 18.40 on Central Bank Minutes
- Brazil Runoff Day on 25 October for Foreign Visitors
- Colombia Resident Visa Transfer: Old Residente Holders Have Until October 31, 2026
- Panama hub · Peru hub · Mexico hub · Brazil hub · Colombia hub
Sources: US Geological Survey (Panama earthquake, magnitude 7.7); Sinaproc and the Panamanian government via La Nación (Costa Rica), Telemetro and Infobae (10 to 13 October 2026); the US National Hurricane Center (advisory of 12 October 2026, read through a mirror page); Mexico’s weather service and Conagua via Excélsior and El Financiero (12 October 2026); Jurado Nacional de Elecciones via Gestión (11 October 2026) and RPP (10 October 2026); Cancillería de Colombia (visa-transfer notice, 2026); Datafolha (poll of 8 October 2026); Banco Central do Brasil (PTAX, Olinda API); Banco Central de Chile series via mindicador.cl (observado); Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia via datos.gov.co (TRM); DolarApi and ArgentinaDatos (Argentina rates and country risk); RT (market closes for Mexico and Peru); IBGE and INDEC calendars; RT economic calendar; Polymarket (prediction markets, 13 October 2026).