The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has started building a federal home for leveraged retail crypto trading. TD Cowen thinks the construction schedule may not beat the 2028 election cycle.
That matters because rules written by an agency can be rewritten by that agency. If the political winds shift before the framework is finished, the whole project could be reopened or shelved.
What the CFTC actually proposed
On October 5, 2026, the CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking, or ANPRM. The notice asks the public to weigh in on a tailored federal framework for retail commodity transactions in crypto assets that involve leverage, margin, or financing.
The proposal has two main pieces. The first is Regulation CTX, which aims to spell out which transactions fall under CFTC authority via Section 2(c)(2)(D) of the Commodity Exchange Act.
The second piece is Regulation CAM. It would carve out a specialized “crypto asset markets” category within designated contract market registrations, giving platforms offering leveraged crypto products a dedicated lane to operate under federal oversight.
None of this is binding yet. The ANPRM opens a 60-day comment period once it appears in the Federal Register, and it does not put any rules into effect.
Why the clock is the problem
TD Cowen’s concern centers on durability. Analysts at the firm, including Jaret Seiberg, have flagged that agency rules are less stable than legislation passed by Congress. Future commissioners can modify agency rules or eliminate them outright.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has acknowledged the stopgap nature of the effort. He has described the approach as a temporary solution meant to provide oversight while legislative efforts remain stuck.
How we got here
The CFTC’s move follows the collapse of a more ambitious plan. The Clarity Act, which sought comprehensive crypto market structure legislation, stalled in the Senate in September 2026.
With the legislative route blocked, the CFTC turned to the tools it already has. The October 5 notice arrived within weeks of the Senate setback.
Selig’s approach aims to bring these platforms under a single federal framework instead of leaving them to navigate a patchwork of state jurisdictions.
What this means for exchanges and traders
For crypto platforms hoping to offer leveraged products to US retail customers, the ANPRM is a genuine opening. Regulation CAM would create a registration path tailored to their business rather than forcing them into ill-fitting categories.
Industry participants recognize the process could stretch into future election cycles, raising concerns about market clarity and investor confidence.
TD Cowen’s warning effectively argues that the only durable fix is legislation. Until lawmakers revive something like the Clarity Act, agency action remains a provisional patch on a structural gap.
Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.