The activities of the "National Guard" militia in Syria's southern province Suweida, led by Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, are increasingly coinciding with violations committed by Israeli forces occupying southern Syria and moves by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to win over Palestinian Druze voters ahead of the upcoming elections.
Militia members recently threatened to attack Umm Walad, a town in eastern rural Daraa near the administrative boundary between Daraa and Quneitra governorates, according to video recordings. The threats came as the militia carried out a drone attack early on Wednesday targeting a government-affiliated internal security checkpoint near Tal Hadid, west of Suweida.
Wael Alwan, a researcher at the Jusoor Centre, said military operations by the National Guard and affiliated armed groups in Suweida were expected.
Speaking to The New Arab, Alwan said the activities would serve Netanyahu's aim to secure votes from Druze communities in the occupied Palestinian territories. They also provided him with an opportunity to demonstrate his alleged commitment to protecting Syria's Druze, as he claims to be doing within Israel, while supporting and arming them.
Alwan said these actions by militias in the governorate, as well as calls for Israeli intervention, were primarily political and media-driven and were part of their continuing attempts to create unrest and block efforts to resolve the situation in Suweida.
Israeli arms openly supplied in Suweida
Israeli arms supplies to militias opposed to the Syrian government are no longer being concealed, according to Charles Lister, director of the Syria programme at the Middle East Institute.
On 19 October, Lister wrote on X that National Guard members had obtained US-made M16 and AR-15 rifles, suggesting Israel had supplied them.
Rashid Hourani, a researcher specialising in security and military affairs, told The New Arab that the National Guard's escalation was linked to efforts on the ground to return the Suweida issue to square one.
These efforts had intensified followed the militia's takeover of Waqm willage in western rural Suweida on 8 October, he said—with the group seeking to expand its areas of control in the province while the Syrian government worked to restore stability and facilitate residents’ return.
Hourani also linked the developments to continuing Israeli military operations on the "Sufa 53" road project, which aims to extend a route through western rural Daraa to the Jordanian border.
He said these activities were an attempt to undermine efforts by Jordan, the US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to reach a solution to the Suweida crisis, particularly the implementation of the Syrian-Jordanian-US roadmap.
Hourani said the National Guard had recently received weapons and ammunition from Israel, transported by military helicopters. Israeli reconnaissance aircraft had also increased their aerial coverage of the militia, particularly over areas controlled by the Syrian government.
Israeli reconnaissance flights had also covered Daraa governorate and the skies over Damascus and its countryside, he added.
Hourani said Israel's movements and support for the National Guard were part of its efforts to impose a new reality on the ground that will strengthen its hand in negotiations with the Syrian government.
Damascus, meanwhile, was relying on diplomacy and US pressure to curb Israeli violations and intervention in Syria.
He said Israel's main current objective was establishing a security buffer zone along the Syrian side of the occupied Golan Heights.
US concern over renewed escalation
The Suweida crisis returned to the forefront after al-Hijri declared on 25 August that the Unitarian Druze, were "an inseparable part of the State of Israel".
The remarks prompted objections from Druze figures and religious authorities in Syria, Lebanon and the occupied territories, and saw an increased crackdown within Suweida against voices opposing al-Hijri.
Tom Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria, expressed Washington's concern over renewed escalation in Suweida in September, when armed militias also intensified their military activities, calling on all sides to exercise restraint.
Barrack called for Suweida's reintegration in accordance with the roadmap agreed by the US, Jordan and Syria approximately a year earlier.
He urged dialogue, understanding and cooperation between the Druze, tribal communities and neighbouring countries, warning that the alternative to dialogue was not victory but another round of mourning.
He said he had signed a tripartite peace roadmap for the governorate a year earlier with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, the aim of which was to reintegrate Suweida into Syria in a dignified manner, while guaranteeing full citizenship rights and ensuring that all obligations were met.
Journalist Samer al-Miqdad told The New Arab that the danger posed by the National Guard's military movements extended beyond changes in territorial control or the spread of fighting into rural Daraa. The greater risk was a return to widespread chaos across southern Syria and the reignition of the crisis.
"People in eastern rural Daraa fear the consequences of this militia's military operations," he said. "We had reached an acceptable level of calm and de-escalation, but the militia is trying to undermine it."
He added that the group continued to marginalise opponents in Suweida who called for a resolution, even if that meant using force and repression. Any further escalation would directly harm residents, he warned, and an extension of the fighting into Daraa would be disastrous, given the militia members' threats.
The roadmap for resolving the Suweida crisis was signed on 17 September 2025, following meetings in Amman in July and August that year between the Syrian government, Jordan and the US.
It affirmed that any solution must preserve Syria's territorial unity and that Suweida's affairs could not be addressed outside the Syrian national framework. The roadmap called for the withdrawal of security forces, the establishment of local administration with security and administrative arrangements, the delivery of humanitarian aid, the release of abductees and the return of displaced residents.
It also called for an end to foreign interference alongside regional security understandings, and an investigation into the deadly events in Suweida in July 2025, when clashes erupted between Druze gunmen on one side and government forces and Bedouin fighters on the other.