After losing to the winless Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts fired their 10-year GM, Chris Ballard, on Monday morning.
The Colts are only two games behind the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, but Indy is a mess right now.
If you're the Denver Broncos, it begs the question: Could Colts Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor be available?
The NFL trade deadline is on November 10, so the Colts have plenty of time to take some calls and look for the best possible offer for Taylor, if they're of a mind to blow it up. He's only 27, and he's coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl campaigns with 1,400-plus rushing yards.
Broncos' Rushing Struggles
Meanwhile, the Broncos' ground game is still looking for lift-off. The Broncos not only re-signed J.K. Dobbins this past offseason, but the $8 million per year they gave him represented a 4x raise.
Dobbins hasn't been four times better, and he's been far less effective than he was in his 10 games last season. While he's angling for a career-low yards-per-carry average (3.3 YPC), it's important to factor in the caliber of defenses he and the Broncos faced through the first six weeks. The Broncos will be looking for his numbers to climb now that their initial six-week gauntlet is behind them.
That being said, Dobbins has to be better, but so does the Broncos' offensive line — a unit that has also underachieved thus far. It's hard to point to any individual or collective on the Broncos' offense that hasn't failed to meet expectations this season.
That's why Taylor suddenly looks very appealing. However, the financial factors could inhibit a possible trade.
Taylor's Contract
The Colts just signed Taylor to a two-year, $44 million deal in August, and he's on the books this season for a $16.1 million salary-cap hit. In 2027, that number climbs to $21 million and $22.98 million in 2028.
The Broncos have several of their own free agents to worry about after 2026, so any potential trade would have to be balanced against those demands. There's also the reality of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle's cap number ballooning from $4.8 million this season to $27 million in 2027.
Then there's Bo Nix. All the scrutinty around his second contract has gone from a matter-of-course eventuality to a holding pattern amid his slump to start this season, but he's eligible for an extension next spring.
If Nix turns the ship around this season, and the Broncos not only make the playoffs but strike deep again, his financial future will come back into focus. The going rate for a franchise quarterback starts around $40 million per year, and only goes up.
While that's a lot to budget for a quarterback, if conditions led to the Broncos signing Nix to a sizable extension, the bulk of the salary-cap ramifications wouldn't set in until 2029, assuming the team also exercises his fifth-year option.
The Broncos have ways to trim the salary-cap down; saying goodbye to left guard Ben Powers and right tackle Mike McGlinchey after this season would free up enough money to offset the absortion of Taylor's contract, for example, but the team would need viable options ready to start in 2027.
Kage Casey at left guard and Alex Palczewski at right tackle could be those options.
The Compensation
The Colts would likely start the Taylor conversation with an asking price of a second-round pick, plus late-round compensation. A desperate team might pay that, but given the high mileage on Taylor's tires (1,652 career carries) since entering the league in 2020, the Broncos could potentially negotiate it down to a third-round pick, plus maybe a 2028 conditional Day 3 pick.
However, that might be wishful thinking since Taylor is still well under 30. His new contract will expire just as he's about to hit 30, so any team that took him on could feel confident in the next two-plus years of production.
As always, the compensation would also be influenced by supply and demand. If the Colts have a big market for Taylor, it'll only drive the price up, but if the calls are few and far between, that's where the Broncos could potentially slide in with a third-round offer, plus a conditional late-rounder.
People will point to the Christian McCaffrey trade as a potential precedent in 2022. The San Francisco 49ers gave up a king's ransom to the Carolina Panthers for McCaffrey, relinquishing a second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round pick.
At the time, McCaffrey was a year younger than Taylor is now, and he was already a two-time Pro Bowler and All-Pro. Factor in his draft pedigree as a former top-10 pick, and the 49ers' needs, and the Panthers were able to come away with a big return in the trade.
Taylor has way more mileage than McCaffrey had and is older, so I have serious doubts that the Colts could command a similar haul that Carolina did. But it make take as much as a second-rounder to pry Taylor off Indy's hands.
Would Taylor be worth such an investment? That's what the Broncos would have to decide. Given their current circumstance, my answer is yes.
The Fit
Given how often the Broncos run out of the shotgun, they'd need to tweak their run game a bit to give Taylor the runway he needs to get up to speed. But that wouldn't be the worst thing — getting Nix under center more and building the run game and play-action passing attack around it.
Taylor would be an immediate impact player, though. A three-time Pro Bowler and a one-time first-team All-Pro, he led the NFL in rushing in 2021 and has paced the league in rushing touchdowns twice.
On a struggling team, Taylor has rushed for 492 yards and seven touchdowns already, but he's only averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He's on pace to finish with 1,394 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Do you know the last time the Broncos had a 1,000-yard rusher? Phillip Lindsay in 2019. That was a long time ago. But it sure would be nice for Nix to have rushing reliability behind him in the Broncos' backfield.
Unfortunately, Dobbins and RJ Harvey haven't provided that consistency this season. But the Broncos believe the worst is behind them and that offensive improvements are right around the corner.
The Takeaway
Given the Broncos' investment in Dobbins and the imminent return of rookie fourth-rounder Jonah Coleman, I have my doubts about them making a move for Taylor. The financial components and trade compensation would also play a role, and after giving up a first- and third-round draft pick to acquire Waddle, which has yet to pay dividends, the Broncos might be a bit gunshy.
Sean Payton loves Dobbins, but if the Broncos made a move, they could get out of his contract painlessly after this season. Meanwhile, Harvey already has a key role in the offense as a 'joker' weapon in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back.
The Broncos also believe in Coleman, but he's been on injured reserve since Week 2. They might want a longer look at Coleman before making any kind of push for Taylor.
One thing I can say for sure is that Taylor would be an immediate upgrade over Dobbins. We have a few weeks until the NFL trade deadline, so we'll be keeping our ear to the floor for any possible buzz.
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