What a difference a week can make in college football, especially in who looks beatable and which games might turn into blowouts.
Duke went into Atlanta with a 72.6 percent chance of beating Georgia Tech this past Saturday, but the Yellow Jackets pulled off the 28-25 upset thanks to a missed field goal attempt by the Blue Devils at the last second. Now, the games Manny Diaz’s team was supposed to win don’t look as easy, and it starts with this week’s rivalry game for the Victory Bell against North Carolina.
Here’s how ESPN's Football Power Index Rankings sees the rest of the Blue Devils’ schedule playing out.
(Odds as of Monday, October 12.)
Week 7: vs. UNC (53.9 percent)
The Tar Heels are coming off their best win of the season against Pittsburgh and carry momentum into the rivalry game. Duke needs to rebound quickly, or this season could fall apart.
Week 8: at Virginia (49.5 percent)
A rematch of last year’s ACC title game now favors the Cavaliers, but UVA hasn’t looked sharp the past two weeks, losing 38-7 to Florida State and pulling off a 28-25 win over Syracuse.
Week 9: vs. Boston College (87.6 percent)
This might be the only easy game left on Duke’s schedule as the Eagles can’t find anything to build on under Bill O’Brien.
Week 10: at NC State (65.8 percent)
The Wolfpack are a conundrum wrapped in a cryptex that no one can solve.
Week 11: at Miami (6.2 percent)
Duke will be up for the matchup against Darian Mensah, but the Hurricanes might have too much talent to make this one close.
Week 12: vs. Clemson (60.1 percent)
The Blue Devils have won the last two matchups against Dabo Swinney’s Tigers.
Week 13: at Wake Forest (28.5 percent)
The Demon Deacons have quickly become the second-best team in the ACC.
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Projecting rest of Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN FPI rankings