Nigeria’s energy inflation rate more than doubled on a year-on-year basis to 10.85% in September 2026, rising sharply from 4.69% in August as energy price pressures intensified across the country.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in its September 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Thursday, October 15, 2026, which showed a significant acceleration in the annual rate of increase in energy prices.
The sharp rise in energy inflation came despite a moderation in Nigeria’s overall inflation rate, which eased to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, highlighting the divergence between energy costs and broader consumer price movements.
Energy inflation surges 131.34% in September
According to the NBS, energy inflation increased by 6.16 percentage points between August and September, representing a 131.34% surge in the annual rate within one month.
- On a month-on-month basis, energy inflation rose to 5.38% in September, reversing the 0.36% decline recorded in August. This indicates a renewed increase in energy prices following the marginal reduction observed in the preceding month.
An analysis by Nairametrics of the NBS monthly CPI reports shows that energy inflation has experienced considerable volatility throughout 2026, with periods of sharp increases followed by significant declines.
- The year began with energy inflation at 11.17% in January before accelerating to 12.90% in February, its highest level in the first nine months of 2026.
- The rate subsequently moderated to 9.90% in March and declined further to 4.60% in April, before recovering slightly to 5.73% in May.
- Energy inflation climbed again to 9.90% in June but fell to 4.40% in July, its lowest reading during the period.
- August recorded a marginal increase to 4.69%, before the rate more than doubled to 10.85% in September, marking the sharpest monthly acceleration in the annual inflation rate so far this year.
The latest figures show that September recorded the third-highest annual energy inflation rate in the first nine months of 2026, behind February and January.
They also indicate that the renewed pressure on energy prices has interrupted the relatively low inflation readings recorded in July and August.
Petrol prices rise amid Middle East conflict
The renewed acceleration in energy inflation comes amid sustained increases in domestic fuel prices following the outbreak of the war involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which has disrupted global oil markets and driven up crude oil prices.
- Before the Middle East conflict began, petrol sold for approximately N830 per litre in Nigeria. However, prices have since climbed above N1,400 per litre in several parts of the country.
- In September, Nairametrics reported that filling stations in Lagos sold petrol for between N1,400 and N1,430 per litre, while prices in Abuja ranged from N1,400 to N1,450 per litre.
- The increase represents a rise of approximately 69% to 75% from the pre-war price of N830 per litre, adding pressure to transportation costs and household spending.
The impact of rising energy costs is also reflected in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) July 2026 Inflation Expectations Survey, which identified energy expenditure as a major concern for businesses and households.
According to the survey, 60.9% of businesses reported higher spending due to inflation, compared with 55.9% of households.
Energy-related expenses, including petrol, diesel and electricity, ranked highest among the factors influencing inflation perceptions, scoring 74.1 points among businesses and 61.9 points among households.
The findings underscore the significant burden of energy costs on Nigerians, particularly as higher fuel and electricity expenses affect business operations, transportation and household finances.
FG introduces 30-day petrol discount
The Federal Government has recently introduced measures aimed at reducing petrol costs and easing the pressure of high fuel prices on consumers, particularly public transport operators.
- On October 8, 2026, the government announced a 30-day petrol discount at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) retail stations, with commercial transport operators receiving priority under the arrangement.
- The initiative is intended to provide temporary relief from rising petrol prices and potentially reduce transportation costs for commuters.
- Following the announcement, the government clarified that the intervention did not represent a return to petrol subsidies, explaining that NNPC Retail would absorb the discount through its profit margins without drawing funds from the federal budget or Federation Account.
However, the arrangement has attracted concerns from independent oil marketers, who argue that limiting the discount to NNPC outlets could restrict its benefits, particularly in communities with limited access to the company’s retail stations.
Representatives of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) have consequently urged the government to extend the programme from 30 to 60 days and accommodate independent marketers to improve nationwide distribution.