Recently resigned Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić has raised the prospect of American investors buying Russian-controlled national oil company NIS, potentially challenging Hungarian energy giant MOL’s long-delayed takeover.
Speaking to RT Balkan on 12 October, Vučić acknowledged that Russia and MOL had reached agreement on important issues but refused to rule out direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington, including a possible sale to American investors. His remarks come as the Hungarian acquisition faces mounting uncertainty after months of delays, while US–Russian energy cooperation gathers momentum.
MOL entered negotiations with Gazprom Neft in January, signing a binding preliminary agreement to purchase the Russian-controlled 56.15 per cent stake in NIS. The initial March deadline passed without a definitive contract, while disagreements over Serbia’s domestic fuel supply and the future of its Pančevo refinery complicated the process. Belgrade eventually reached a shareholders’ agreement with MOL in June, securing guarantees for continued refinery operations and greater Serbian participation in management. The transaction, however, remained dependent on Gazprom and an American sanctions waiver.
MOL–Gazprom Negotiations Collapse?
By early October, doubts had shifted towards Moscow’s willingness to sell. Serbian business outlet Forbes Srbija, citing a source close to the government, reported that negotiations had effectively collapsed, with Gazprom allegedly prolonging the process in anticipation of sanctions relief linked to the recent agreement on Russian diesel exports between Washington and Moscow.
MOL maintained that the acquisition process was continuing, while Serbian officials rejected reports of a breakdown. Washington has meanwhile extended the relevant operating and negotiating licences until 30 October, keeping the transaction legally possible.
‘Gazprom allegedly prolonging the process in anticipation of sanctions relief’
Vučić’s remarks about an American alternative are significant because they represent a clear departure from his earlier public position. When a little-known Serbian company offered €2 billion for a majority stake in NIS in May, he dismissed the bid, questioning the investor’s ability to operate such a strategically important business. Gazprom Neft also reaffirmed that MOL remained its negotiating partner. Five months later, Vučić himself is openly contemplating a different ownership arrangement, although no concrete American offer has yet emerged.
What lies behind that shift, as mentioned earlier, is the changing diplomatic environment between Moscow and Washington. Following Donald Trump’s 9 October agreement with Vladimir Putin to release Russian diesel onto global markets, Washington temporarily eased sanctions covering the shipments. In the following days, Reuters had already reported discussions about American participation in Russian energy assets, including Nord Stream and Lukoil.
On Wednesday, 14 October, Kremlin investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev welcomed the diesel agreement as a potential starting point for broader economic cooperation. Should Washington become more receptive to transactions involving Russian energy assets, Gazprom could gain significant alternatives to selling NIS to MOL.
No Strategy, No Deal
That is not good news, at least not for Hungary, as the potential loss extends far beyond a missed acquisition. NIS operates Serbia’s only oil refinery, with an annual processing capacity of approximately 4.8 million tonnes, alongside an extensive petrol-station network and oil and gas production assets.
Bringing these operations under MOL’s control would strengthen its Central and Southeastern European business and complement the planned—although now in limbo following the change of government—Hungary–Serbia oil pipeline. The resulting energy integration could also increase Budapest’s economic leverage in the Western Balkans, particularly valuable amid worsening global supply disruptions and volatile fuel prices.
‘Since the April change of government, public diplomatic engagement has been reduced to virtually nothing’
From MOL’s perspective, however, the deal is becoming increasingly less commercially attractive. Serbia has already demanded guarantees that Pančevo remain operational for at least ten years and secured greater influence over corporate decisions. Such commitments could restrict MOL’s flexibility, while the purchase price and future investment requirements remain uncertain. Energy expert András Deák warned on Wednesday that MOL should not buy NIS at any cost, highlighting the danger of another difficult state–corporate relationship resembling the Hungarian company’s experience with Croatia’s INA.
Finally, there are still unanswered questions about Budapest’s role in the negotiations. Under Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian government treated the takeover as a strategic priority, with the former prime minister personally discussing it with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in February. Since the April change of government, public diplomatic engagement has been reduced to virtually nothing, although Prime Minister Péter Magyar reportedly monitors the negotiations and requests briefings.
Despite that, there is no visible diplomatic strategy regarding NIS, making the situation increasingly look as though Hungary is going to fumble a major opportunity to strengthen its strategic position in the Western Balkans.
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