BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, picks its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Wednesday 14 October, Lula’s campaign told Brazil’s election court that Meta AI on WhatsApp favours his rival, Flávio Bolsonaro.
- The claim The assistant refused images of Lula with his ballot number 13 but produced campaign posters for Flávio with his number 22.
- Meta’s answer Meta denies favouring any candidate, says it bars Meta AI from making candidate images and has now blocked first-name prompts too.
- The new front The campaign plans a complaint to the Organization of American States and briefed parties from more than 12 countries.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (15 October, 3:23 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 15 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Lula’s campaign told Brazil’s electoral court on Wednesday 14 October that Meta AI, the assistant built into WhatsApp, favours his conservative rival Flávio Bolsonaro. The campaign also plans to take its fight with the California company to the Organization of American States (OAS) in Washington.
The dispute pulls a US platform deeper into Brazil’s 25 October presidential runoff, now 10 days away. Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, denies favouring any candidate and says Meta AI is barred from making images of candidates.
What Lula’s Campaign Says Meta AI Did
The left-leaning magazine CartaCapital tested Meta AI on WhatsApp on Wednesday 14 October, asking for green-and-yellow posters with each candidate’s name and number. The tool produced posters for Flávio, number 22, and for Augusto Cury, a first-round candidate for the small Avante party, number 70.
A matching request for Lula with his number 13 was refused twice, CartaCapital reported. “I couldn’t generate the image you asked for right now with Lula and the number 13,” the assistant replied, blaming an automatic block.
The news site Poder360 and the Fortaleza daily Diário do Nordeste ran their own tests that day and got the same result. Poder360 found that Meta blocks campaign images using the names Lula, Luiz, Flávio Bolsonaro and Bolsonaro, but the tool let the first name Flávio through.
Senator Camilo Santana, the Workers’ Party leader in the Senate and a campaign spokesman, described a similar pattern to reporters on Wednesday. When he asked WhatsApp’s AI for a Lula 13 flag, Flávio’s 22 came up instead, according to Poder360 and O Tempo, a Belo Horizonte daily.
A search for “Exército do Lula”, a large pro-Lula WhatsApp channel, suggested a pro-Flávio page called “Tropa do Flávio”, Santana added. He said Meta admits technical failures but is not transparent about them, Poder360 reported.
The New Request to Brazil’s Election Court
Lula’s coalition, Brasil Pronto pra Mais (Brazil Ready for More), took the Meta AI complaint to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which runs Brazil’s elections. It called the tool’s behaviour a “manipulation of public debate” and asked for urgent measures, Poder360 reported.
The filing adds to a case in which Judge Marco Aurélio Bellizze had already ordered Meta to keep its records and explain reported restrictions. The court had not ruled on the urgent request by the time the new filing went in, CartaCapital reported.
The coalition wants Meta to stop what it calls unjustified restrictions, remove accounts it considers fake and restore lost reach at its own cost. It also asks for data on how content was distributed, according to CartaCapital.
The campaign says Lula’s official Instagram profile could not pay to boost feed posts on 9 and 10 October. It argues that the way Meta distributes content helps the candidacy of Flávio’s Liberal Party (PL).
Why the Fight Now Reaches Washington
Santana said the campaign will take its complaint to the OAS, the Washington-based body of the hemisphere’s governments. The formal filing was due by the end of Wednesday, Poder360 reported, and a complaint will also go to Brazil’s data protection authority.
On Wednesday, campaign members met representatives of parties and pro-democracy groups from more than 12 countries, O Tempo and Poder360 reported. Santana named the United States, Britain, Argentina and Spain among them, hoping parliaments and the press abroad take up the case, Poder360 reported.
On Thursday 15 October, the campaign is due to meet international observers accredited by the electoral court and show them a report on the incidents. Seven missions will watch the runoff, including the OAS, the European Union and the Atlanta-based Carter Center, the court says.
Sidônio Palmeira, the campaign’s marketing chief, tied the suspected interference to the United States and cited Britain’s Brexit vote as an example. “They are objectively interfering in Brazilians’ elections,” he said of the platforms, according to Poder360.
Who Is Running and What Meta Says
Lula, 80, the sitting president, seeks a fourth term for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for the conservative PL, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Meta said on Wednesday that, to comply with Brazil’s electoral rules, it temporarily bars Meta AI from recommending candidates or making images of them. It has also taken steps to block prompts that use only a candidate’s first name and number, O Tempo and Diário do Nordeste reported.
The company, based in Menlo Park, California, denies favouring any candidate and says it is committed to equal treatment on its platforms. On 12 October it admitted technical failures affecting Lula’s ads and posts but denied favouring Flávio in a filing to the court.
Separately, on Wednesday 14 October federal prosecutors gave Meta and X five days to explain blocked accounts and deleted political posts. The prosecutors acted on a complaint from civil-society groups, not from either campaign.
What It Means for You
For US investors, Meta now faces a court request, a prosecutors’ inquiry and a planned regional complaint in Latin America’s largest country at once. Any order from the court to change how Meta spreads campaign content would be watched far beyond Brazil.
For WhatsApp users in Brazil, including expats, the case shows how AI assistants built into everyday apps have become part of the election fight. Meta says its assistant is now barred from making images of any candidate, including through first-name prompts.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83% chance of winning and Lula 16.5% (15 October, 3:23 a.m. ET). Over the previous 24 hours Flávio’s price fell about 3 points and Lula’s rose 3, with about US$182 million bet on the market.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 16.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 18%
As of 15 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when Judge Bellizze will rule on the new request, or whether he will order Meta to restore any lost reach. Meta has not said how long the gap in its filter stayed open or how many candidate images it produced.
Whether the OAS complaint went out on Wednesday as planned, and what the campaign wants the regional body to do, has not been made public. It is also unclear whether the international observers will raise the issue before the 25 October vote.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Lula’s campaign say Meta AI did?
It says Meta AI on WhatsApp refused images of Lula with his number 13 but made posters for Flávio Bolsonaro with number 22. Tests by CartaCapital, Poder360 and Diário do Nordeste on Wednesday 14 October found the same pattern.
What did the campaign ask Brazil’s election court?
Lula’s coalition asked for urgent measures, including an end to what it calls unjustified restrictions and the removal of fake accounts. It also wants Meta to restore the reach Lula’s posts lost, at Meta’s own cost.
Why is the OAS involved?
Lula’s campaign says it will take its complaint to the Organization of American States, the regional body based in Washington. The OAS is also one of seven international missions observing the 25 October runoff.
What does Meta say?
Meta denies favouring any candidate and says that, to follow Brazil’s electoral rules, it bars Meta AI from making images of candidates. It says it has also blocked prompts that use only a candidate’s first name and number.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October, between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Polymarket bettors gave Flávio an 83% chance of winning on 15 October.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Faltam 11 dias: observação internacional reforça transparência do 2º turno, 14 October 2026; CartaCapital (Vinícius Nunes), Campanha de Lula vai ao TSE contra a Meta por bloqueio de conteúdos e viés da IA, 14 October 2026; CartaCapital (Vinícius Nunes), IA da Meta bloqueia cartaz de Lula com número 13, mas gera imagens de Flávio Bolsonaro, 14 October 2026; Poder360, Meta bloqueia ‘Lula 13’, mas libera ‘Flávio 22’ na IA do WhatsApp, 14 October 2026; Poder360 (Lara Brito), Campanha de Lula vai à OEA contra ‘interferência’ de big techs, 14 October 2026; Poder360 (Lara Brito), Campanha de Lula avalia interferência no Grok e X, mas prioriza Meta, 14 October 2026; O Tempo (Uanabia Mariano), Camilo Santana aponta indícios de interferência nas eleições e acusa Meta de favorecer Flávio, 14 October 2026; O Tempo (Paulo Leite), IA da Meta bloqueia criação de imagens associadas a Lula e libera as de Flávio Bolsonaro, 14 October 2026; Diário do Nordeste, IA da Meta bloqueia termos como ‘Lula’, mas cria material de campanha para ‘Flávio’ no WhatsApp, 14 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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