Diplomat Jüri Luik told ERR that expectations are high for a possible meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia and China, but they lack the power to establish a new world order.
Asked by host Liisu Lass why the Americans continue to overlook the fact that Putin supports Iran and shares intelligence with the country, Luik said it was very difficult to say.
"It seems to me that this stems from President Trump's personal understanding of how the world works. Trump has repeatedly said: We give the Ukrainians coordinates, information and weapons — so why should I criticize the Russians for doing the same in Iran?" Luik said.
"But privately and behind the scenes, the Americans have repeatedly signaled that this must stop. There is no doubt that there may be a much broader dimension here involving cooperation between Iran and China. At the moment, it seems that much of the targeting information provided on various U.S. bases in Arab countries may actually have come through Iranian-Chinese cooperation," Luik added.
Trump has proposed meeting with Putin and Xi Jinping in China to discuss Ukraine. Could such a meeting produce an agreement establishing a new world order?
Luik does not believe so.
"I think that if this meeting takes place at all, it will be a big show that all three will probably enjoy. But Trump has said something very important: He has said that if such a meeting takes place, he is willing to attend, but he wants to discuss nuclear nonproliferation. This is an important issue because the Americans have long held the view that there is no point in discussing nuclear weapons solely with the Russians," he said.
Luik noted that although China's nuclear arsenal is currently not comparable in size to Russia's, the situation could be reversed in 10 years.
"So the Americans would like the Chinese to accept some multilateral restrictions on their nuclear weapons. The Chinese have said: We have so few weapons that we don't want anything to do with this. Trump has now put the issue on the table and it is entirely possible that the Chinese are not actually interested in such a meeting if the Americans really insist on discussing nuclear arms control," Luik said.
"As for Ukraine, let's be honest — what are they really going to discuss? And as for somehow establishing a new world order, I don't believe these countries have the power to do that," he added.
There is growing talk that the U.S. is preparing to present Ukraine with a new peace plan. Luik said he could not say what its main provisions might be.
"We don't have access to any precise documents. Judging by public sources, there is a whole range of different agreements on the table, starting with those concerning the reconstruction of Ukraine's economy. Then there is the so-called territorial issue, which is certainly the most difficult," the diplomat said.
Luik acknowledged that security guarantees from European countries and the United States are of crucial importance to the Ukrainians.
"The Americans say these would be guarantees similar to Article 5 [of the NATO treaty] — which would be a very, very significant step if the Americans ultimately agree to provide them. Because just as important as resolving this conflict is, of course, ensuring that a similar conflict, war or invasion never happens again in the future," Luik said.
Luik estimates that four or five different agreements are under consideration.
"In some ways, this is also the kind of situation in which experienced diplomats would certainly relish working day and night. But these agreements are currently being discussed within a very narrow circle. In that sense, the group of people working on them is indeed very small," he added.
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