Big picture: Bangladesh at risk of not making final
The scale of contests so far in the tri-series - Afghanistan winning big and Bangladesh suffering a big defeat - puts the tournament hosts as the favourites in the last round-robin match on Wednesday. Interestingly, the Afghanistan-Bangladesh contest in ODIs is now locked at 11-11 even though Afghanistan certainly look like the superior side.
On top of overcoming Afghanistan, Bangladesh have to win by a decent margin - most likely by 40 runs if they bat first, or chase a total in fewer overs - to reach the tri-series final. Zimbabwe meanwhile, will watch with bated breath.
Afghanistan crushed Zimbabwe by 158 runs on Monday. Sediqullah Atal struck his third ODI century, while Ibrahim Zadran got out in the nineties for the fourth time in his relatively short career. Later, Rashid Khan, like he often does in the middle-overs, ran through Zimbabwe with a four-wicket haul. Fazalhaq Farooqi and Allah Ghazanfar also bowled well, which gives the performance an all-round feel to the win.
Bangladesh don't quite have so much going for them. Zimbabwe crushed them in the first game, when their bowling couldn't bring them timely breakthroughs after the first three wickets. The batters couldn't take advantage of a good start either. Taskin Ahmed admitted that the team lacked game awareness, while head coach Phil Simmons has said the team lacked understanding.
These are strong statements from such senior figures in the team, which highlights the level of concern for Bangladesh's ODI form. A better performance against Afghanistan is certainly hoped, but that would just paper over the cracks. Afghanistan though don't have such problems. They look like a well-oiled machine.
Form guide
Afghanistan WWWWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Bangladesh LWLLL
In the spotlight: Ibrahim Zadran and Shoriful Islam
Ibrahim Zadran made 90 against Zimbabwe on Monday, having made two scores of 95 each against Bangladesh here last year. Given his form and strokeplay in the previous game, Zadran looks primed for another big one, and he would hope that this time he can cross the three-figure mark in Abu Dhabi. Bangladesh must figure out a way to stop him, otherwise Afghanistan tend to post a good total whenever Zadran set them up with his wonderful batting.
One of those who could stop Zadran is Shoriful Islam, who has the best record of Bangladesh bowlers against the Afghanistan opener. Shoriful has removed Zadran six times in 55 balls in all formats, including twice in ODIs. Shoriful is also in decent form, having taken 2 for 47 against Zimbabwe in the last game, while also coming off a seven-wicket haul against Australia in the Mackay Test. Shoriful has matured significantly, often bringing the ball back into the right-hander which keeps them guessing.
Team news:
Unless Afghanistan want to rotate among their fast bowlers, there is hardly a reason to change their playing XI.
Afghanistan (probable): 1 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 2 Ibrahim Zadran, 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah (capt), 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi, 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Rashid Khan, 9 AM Ghazanfar, 10 Ziaur Rahman, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi
If Mehidy Hasan Miraz does not recover from viral fever, Bangladesh will have a tough time balancing the playing XI.
Bangladesh (probable): 1 Tanzid Hasan, 2 Soumya Sarkar, 3 Najmul Hossain Shanto, 4 Saif Hassan, 5 Towhid Hridoy (capt), 6 Mosaddek Hossain, 7 Nurul Hasan (wk), 8 Rishad Hossain, 9 Taskin Ahmed, 10 Shoriful Islam, 11 Mustafizur Rahman
Pitch and conditions: Bat first, bat big
The team winning the toss will most likely want to bat first in Abu Dhabi where the heat and humidity provides a bit of grip on the pitch during the second half of day-night ODIs.
Stats and trivia: Rashid's great record against Bangladesh
- Taskin Ahmed took three wickets in the first powerplay for the first time in his career, in Bangladesh's previous match against Zimbabwe on Saturday
- Ibrahim Zadran's scores in Abu Dhabi are 95, 95 and 90. He has now been dismissed in the nineties four times out of his eleven half-centuries
- Rashid Khan tormented Bangladesh in the bilateral series in Abu Dhabi last year, picking up eleven wickets including a five-wicket haul. He has taken 35 wickets against them at 19.22
Quotes
"We lacked understanding of the situation, and making sure that when we got the three wickets, we hammer down and try and get another one quickly. Although, they batted really well. But then when we batted, we just lacked the understanding of the situation and knowing that with a start like that, we just had to make sure we bat for the 50 overs and we'd have won the game."
Bangladesh coach Phil Simmons on what his team lacked against Zimbabwe
Mohammad Isam is Cricinfo's Bangladesh correspondent. @isam84