Independent candidates sense a moment in the West. Democrats are hoping they're right

BURWELL, NEBRASKA – Tucked in the rolling Sandhills, the largest sand dune formation in America, sits Morgan Ranch, a 15,000-acre, family-run operation home to 1,000 cows and thousands of offspring.

"There's a lot of mouths to feed — both animals and two-legged," laughed Dan Morgan. His ranch has one of the largest privately-owned Wagyu herds in the U.S.

He said his job has given him a front row seat to what he calls the "uncertainty" of President Trump's policies.

"To raise a piece of meat takes me three years," Morgan said. "Well, look at the changes in the past two years: costs, tariffs, reciprocal tariffs because half of our business is export — it's just hell," he said.

He's a Democrat — a self-described small blue dot in a sea of red, in a county and state that President Trump dominated two years ago.

There's no Democrat running for the Senate in Nebraska, but Morgan is excited by independent candidate Dan Osborn.

"Osborn makes the case that somebody needs to represent the working family," Morgan said. "And he can effectively do that."

Osborn is one of four independents running for Senate in states President Trump won handily, including Idaho, South Dakota and Montana. Buoyed by the president's sinking approval ratings and public frustration over affordability, independent candidates argue they bring a winning case to voters.

It is an argument that some Democrats hope will resonate with voters as the party looks to retake control of Congress, betting that these candidates can help topple Republicans in parts of the country where their own brand is hurting.

"I'm a partisan Democrat. I believe in the Democratic Party. I also believe in building coalitions so we can win elections and then do the work of the people," said Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party. "And if that means creating coalitions with independents in some of our states, then that's exactly what we need to do."

But while these independents are generally unified in their political philosophy that the two-party system is toxic and has led to legislative intransigence, the challenges they face in their respective races are different, in large part because of the role the Democratic Party has decided to play.

'Spoiler' accusations abound in Montana

Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret running for Senate in Montana, said voters he talks to are fed up with politics as usual — and that he offers a viable alternative as an independent.

"When I go to Washington, D.C., I'm not going to put on a red jersey with an 'R' or a blue jersey with a 'D.' I'm going to have a jersey with an 'M' on it, and I'm going to work for Montana," Bodnar said in an interview from the homecoming parade at the University of Montana, where he used to be president.

Like Osborn, Bodnar said if elected, he won't caucus with either party. The current two independents in the Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, both caucus with Democrats.

His theory of the case is that in a closely-divided Senate, an independent willing to work with either party — but beholden to neither — actually holds significant strength.

"I think there is real power in an independent or multiple independents that can work together, even with people who maybe don't leave their caucus but form an independent-minded bloc, that can move forward common sense solutions that this country so desperately needs," Bodnar said.

The race has been marked by frustration among Democrats — at either Bodnar for not running as a Democrat himself, or at the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead, for not dropping out and creating a glide path for Bodnar.

"Had Bodnar run as a Democrat, he'd be leading in this election," said former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

"At the end of the day, there will be a lot of people that look in the mirror and say, 'Oh, my God, if we would have just run a Democrat without an independent, we would have won this election,'" Schweitzer said.

Many prominent Montana Democrats — like former Sen. Jon Tester and former Gov. Steve Bullock — have endorsed Bodnar, setting up a divide between Democrats supporting their own party's nominee and those supporting the independent.

"It's just been really, really contentious and quite a bitter thing within the state party," said Rob Saldin, political science professor at the University of Montana.

Saldin said unlike states like Idaho, which has deep Republican entrenchment, Montana Democrats aren't as "beat down" and look at the election as a chance to rebuild the brand in the state.

"They want somebody who, for years into the future, is going to be able to help bring money into the state Democratic Party, to help down-ballot candidates for the legislature, to be the face of the party in the state," he said. "And when you've got an independent candidate who's saying, 'a pox on both your houses,' this is not the guy who's going to be able to do that work in the trenches for the party."

There was an effort to get Bankhead to exit the race before the August deadline. Bankhead said she and her family were harassed. She also said "white gloved politicians" were subtly trying to tell her to drop out of the race.

"They were very polite. They didn't ask me to drop out, but it was subtle — like, 'Well, what's the goal and what kind of job do you want down the road?'" she said, adding she heard from a sitting senator, sitting governor and former cabinet official. "Nobody from the [Democratic National Committee] was like, 'drop out' but that was certainly the nudge."

Bankhead claimed in an interview with Montana PBS that she was offered a DNC job if she dropped out of the race. The DNC denies this.

Bankhead said if Democrats want to support independents — there's a better way to do it.

"Nebraska was very transparent, right? The Democratic nominee said they would step aside in favor of the independent if the people voted for them. And that's very transparent — that's great."

Fending off 'Democrat Dan' label in Nebraska

Kleeb, the Nebraska Democratic Party chair and a DNC vice chair, said Nebraska Democrats were very conscious about being transparent regarding their intentions to support the independent on the ticket.

"We were very honest with voters," said Kleeb. "And I think if you're going to do this as a Democratic Party, that's what you have to do — you have to be honest with voters, explain the strategy and make sure that Democrats support that."

She said Democrats had high hopes for Osborn, a mechanic who got his start in politics leading a strike at the Kellogg's plant in 2021, and raised eyebrows two years ago when he came within seven points of incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

The choice for Democrats to support Osborn led to the party running someone in the primary with the stated intention of having her drop out to clear the path for Osborn. There was then a lawsuit attempting to force the party to replace that winning primary candidate who dropped out.

Kleeb said the decision to back Osborn is part of a long-term goal, which includes repairing the damage to the Democratic brand in a redder state like Nebraska.

"It's right that people have pushed back on our brand – it's a problem. We are working on it," Kleeb said, adding there will be a time when Nebraska builds up its Democratic base so it's competitive statewide.

In the meantime, Democrats like Kleeb are hoping Osborn can help the party deny Republicans a majority in the Senate.

Osborn has been crisscrossing the state on a 93-county tour. His town halls have a distinctly populist pitch to voters denouncing money in politics.

"We are at a turning point in our country where we have to take it back for ourselves – for the workers, for the people," he said to a group of 30 in Taylor. "Because the powers that be — the money interests — have taken control."

In between stops in five counties on one day, Osborn said in an interview he's not only running against incumbent GOP. Sen Pete Ricketts.

"I'm running against the entire establishment that is stuck in this system that's working exactly the way it's supposed to work for them," he said. "I represent something that's going to throw a wrench in."

As Osborn travels the state, Ricketts has been working to convince constituents that the independent is actually a Democrat.

"Dan's a Democrat. Open borders, take our guns, higher taxes, that's no fun — vote for Osborn and you'll see, the Democrats will run D.C.," croons a radio ad from the Ricketts campaign. In their debate, Ricketts called Osborn "Democrat Dan" so many times the independent suggested they should bring out a third podium.

Sue McNeil, a lifelong Republican voter in Loup County, said she doesn't like the nickname.

"I think they're just using that 'Democrat Dan' to scare people, because Nebraska is a Republican state and I feel like a lot of people are a little nervous about supporting a Democrat," she said. "But Dan Osborn is not a Democrat — he's an independent."

She's supporting Osborn, citing frustration with the Trump administration and GOP-controlled Congress.

"Why did we start the war with Iran? Our fuel prices have skyrocketed," she said, noting she recently paid $159 to fill up the pickup. "How are we supposed to make it?"

But other conservative voters say they agree with Ricketts.

"Osborn is a fraud," said Rich Sherbeck from Ansley. "He's not really an independent — he's a Democrat, DSA-aligned."

Casey Stengel, who said he always votes Republican, was curious about Osborn and came to a meet and greet at a coffee shop in Thedford. He told Osborn he was on the fence and asked him to convince him to vote for him.

Osborn launched into a discussion about uplifting workers and building bridges with both parties to bring about real change.

Once Osborn left, Stengel sighed.

"Yes, there's good ideas," he said. "But we all know one man ain't going to go fix the deal."