The Ravens offense was was brand new. The Ravens defense was supposed to be stout Week 1.
The had all the new coaches who had no ties to this organization and a totally foreign system and a coordinator who had never called a play before and an totally reconstructed interior offensive line and with a host of rookies hopeful of making an impact on that side of the ball. It was going to need time to adjust and adapt and there would be a lot of penalties along the way … and despite that the offense has still been by far the strength of this football team. By far.
And that’s despite the only real winning downfield option, Zay Flowers, missing about half the season to this point and another starting receiver, rookie Ja’Kobi Lane, playing only a few snaps before he headed to IR and with two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson missing a game and iffy to play Sunday and with four players already playing center through five weeks.
So color me surprised and give major kudos to that 30-year-old coordinator, Declan Doyle, for managing this transition expertly. But, um, also color me shocked that this secondary hasn’t been much more impactful and specifically the corners and the free safety. Head coach Jesse Minter was already a proven defensive play caller and all the money and resources were in the secondary and this system is a “cousin” of what Mike Macdonald ran to perfection here (as Kyle Hamilton dubbed it).
And all of the corners are back from last season and the only new addition of note to the entire secondary was a veteran box safety and the group has been almost entirely healthy. They just haven’t been nearly good enough.
Given that Minter’s superpower is coverage and the back end, and given that he is flooding the field with defensive backs more than almost anyone in the NFL (second at 32% - NFL average is 8%) and ranks 20th in opposer QB rating and completion percentage out of dime, we got problems. And considering their late-game third-down issues are coming in dime, and they have only faced one above average QB all season (Dak Prescott) it’s fair to say the corners especially have a long way to go, and the secondary as a whole.
“I don't think we played well, for real,” Hamilton said after Sunday’s comeback win in Atlanta. “We still – the third-down stuff was crazy … Third down, we have to do better. But it obviously feels a lot better fixing those mistakes with a win. I might be a little too cynical or critical, but we can be better."
Nah, he’s just being honest. Here’s where they need to get better, fast.
Can’t Win The Money Down
Hamilton just alluded to another rough night on third down, with Atlanta’s suspect QB Michael Penix, just back from a third ACL surgery, going 7/12 throwing on third down against the Ravens’s dime packages, including three conversions on third and 10 and one on third-and-11 and another on third-and-15. Can’t happen.
On the season opponents are converting 45% of their third downs in the second half of games against the Ravens when they throw the ball; Baltimore ranks just 27th in that metric. Yikes. Better pass rush would help but these are all highly paid guys and/or first-round picks back there with a premier schemer and play caller … unless maybe some of them aren’t quite as good as the GM thinks?
Where Are The Picks?
One of the great things about Minter’s scheme with the Chargers is it put everyone in position to make plays on the ball and he had a bunch of mid-round picks at corner and they got off the field with interceptions. They were third in the NFL in INT% in two years under Minter and entering mid-October the Ravens corners have combined for … wait for it … no picks.
Baltimore has three picks all season and they were all on very shallow passes to the middle of the field and all were essentially picked off underneath by linebackers – middle linebacker Roquan Smith and Hamilton in a linebacker role. The corners have played 485 total pass rush reps, combined, by the way, without that INT.
Coverage Is Soft
The Ravens have built up many big leads this season and made teams one-handed, and it’s been obvious that suspect QB for the most part would be forced to chuck the ball around and they also have faced many teams with an absolute funnel on where the ball was going – Drake London on Sunday in Atlanta and Carnell Tate with the Titans and Chris Olave with the Saints.
Yet, um, dudes are not making plays on the ball. At all. Even with high volume from weak QBs who are making turnover-worthy throws. Here’s how the Ravens corners have fared in coverage. Hint – it sucks:
Opposing QBs: 49/74 (66%), 537 yards (11 yds/comp), 3 TDs – 0 INTs, 101.0 rating
6 Passes 20+, 31 1st Downs, 2 DPI, 4 pass break ups
Now hold your nose, because here are the numbers for corners + free safeties:
Opposing QBs: 70/100 (70%), 836 yards (11.9/comp), 5 TDs – 0 INTs, 111.9 rating
13 passes 20+, 41 1st downs, 3 DPI, 4 PBUs
=Let’s see what Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen have in store if this doesn’t get cleaned up real quick.
No. 1 WRs Eat Them Up
The Ravens were lucky that Daniel Jones was on a wonky Achilles Week 1 and Alec Pierce was never right with the ankle problem and couldn’t even function as a pretend downfield decoy. Since then, here’s how things have been going:
London (ATL): 7/11, 118 yards, 7 1st D
Tate (TEN): 9/12, 145 yds, 6 1st D
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): 7/8, 112 yds 5 1st D
George Pickens (DAL): 7/11, 82 yds, 4 1st D
Olave (NO): 8/10, 86 yds, TD, 6 1st D
Yeah, better get to work back there, now.
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