B.C. snap election look back: NDP pivots, Conservative unity questions, and a vote few wanted

The story of the 2026 B.C. provincial election may have been written on Day 1 when NDP leader David Eby took questions from the media about whether his decision to call an election had united the right.

Just days before, the B.C. Conservatives were in turmoil as leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay tried to remake the party in her image, firing staff and forcing executives to resign, leading to the resignation or expulsion of 13 MLAs who disagreed with the direction she was taking the party.

But less than 48 hours before Eby made the trip to Victoria to visit Lt.-Gov. Wendy Cocchia and get her permission to call a snap election, Findlay resigned and Lorne Doerkson, the well-liked but relatively unknown MLA from Cariboo-Chilcotin, was thrust into the role of interim leader while flying back from a holiday in South Africa.

By the day of the election call, Doerkson and CentreBC interim leader Peter Milobar had made a late-night deal to bring back all the MLAs who had left under Findlay.

This led to an awkward moment for Eby when the advantage he thought he had over his main opponents evaporated even before he could leave the grounds of Government House. Asked if he united the right with his election call, Eby maintained the Conservatives still represented “chaos.”

“The chaos on the other side is actually their offering to British Columbia. They want to import MAGA-style politics, the chaos of Donald Trump, to British Columbia,” he said.

“I am putting to British Columbians the very clear choice between the chaos, the cuts, the cozying up to Trump of the Conservative caucus and all of their various parties, or a commitment to build, to stand shoulder to shoulder across the country with Canadians, to commit to this project.”

It appears British Columbians could be ready to reject Eby’s call, however, with polls showing the Conservatives with a lead of anywhere between two and five points heading into the last day of the campaign, including a new poll from Leger showing the Conservatives with 44 per cent support among decided voters compared to 39 per cent for the NDP.

By the end of the first week of the campaign, Eby had moved away from talking about the American president, as it became clear the rationale for an early election wasn’t landing with voters, and focused on the success of his government in drawing major projects to B.C., such as the final investment decision for LNG Canada Phase 2, and discussing the slimness of his majority, which was effectively three seats but still saw NDP MLAs voting from hospital beds.

He has faced some heat over his criticism of B.C. billionaire Jim Pattison, lumping Save-On-Foods in with Loblaws and other large grocery chains during the launch of his plan to lower grocery prices, and the discovery that his family is benefiting from a $10-a-day child care program that his government paused.

Most of the anger from voters, however, appears to be over the calling of a snap election at the same time as a municipal campaign, as well as fatigue of a government that has been in power for eight years.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, scrambled together a campaign team that included operatives from the leadership campaigns of Caroline Elliott, now the candidate for West Vancouver-Capilano, and Iain Black, now a co-chair of the party’s election effort.

The party has been forced to drop two candidates for racist online posts, both in safe NDP seats, while also deflecting calls to fire campaign manager Katy Merrifield for anti-Muslim comments on social media, and a furor over a leaked letter to lawyers about their plans to get rid of no-fault insurance at ICBC.

Despite this, it appears B.C.’s main centre-right party has the advantage going into election night.

“Time for a change” sentiment is high, with Leger finding that 45 per cent of voters have grown more negative about Eby over the past week, compared to only 22 per cent for Doerkson.

Both the Conservatives and NDP have focused on tax changes and creating economic growth. Eby proposes to raise the top two income tax brackets by two points, and create a new bracket for those making over $1 million, while the Conservatives have promised to cut taxes and not introduce any new ones.

Some corners of the NDP feel that the best-case scenario for the party is that they come away with a slim majority, which they secured in 2024 with a 22-vote victory in Surrey-Guildford.

For all of the talk about the seat count needed for Eby to remain in his position as leader, some party strategists think the NDP no longer has the luxury of worrying about who leads the party forward and that the focus is now on saving whatever they can.

They hope the Green vote, currently measured at 13 per cent by Leger, drops and that voters vote for the NDP over fears of a Conservative government.

Other operatives are more bullish, but even then feel that the race will come down to the wire, and that whoever has a better result in seat-rich Surrey will form government.

The Conservatives, feeling the advantage, have been limiting Doerkson’s appearances and trying to avoid any blunders that could halt their momentum.

Questions remain within the party about whether the interim leader can keep the caucus together, even if the Conservatives form government. But most within the party feel that it would be foolish to challenge the person who could bring them into government for the first time since 1933.

The last Conservative premier to get elected was Simon Fraser Tolmie in 1928.

“This is one thing I’ve learned: My throat cannot yell five hours a day, without it being challenged,” said Doerkson, while on a final campaign stop in Surrey.

“Three or four weeks ago, I didn’t know that I would be doing this.”

As for the Greens, leader Emily Lowan has been focused on the ridings she believes her party can win, including the two they currently hold in Saanich North and the Islands and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

Other ridings they have focused on include Victoria-Beacon Hill, where they believe the lack of a Conservative candidate can help them, and Saanich South.

As Eby said again Thursday, however, the only poll that matters is the final count on election night, and the NDP leader will be hoping his early election gamble pays off. The Conservatives hope that Doerkson can lead the party back to the premier’s office for the first time in almost 100 years.

“The poll that matters is the vote that British Columbians mark in the ballot box, and the choice is stark,” said Eby.