Washington, Oct 13: Democrats are heavy favourites to win control of the US House of Representatives in the November 3 midterm elections, according to the prediction markets and polling averages, raising the prospect of tougher congressional scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s tariff, trade and visa policies that weigh heavily on India.
Traders on the prediction market Kalshi gave Democrats a 90 per cent chance of taking the House and a 62 per cent chance of winning the Senate, according to prices published on Monday. Kalshi put the chance of a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 61 per cent.
The next most likely outcome, at 30 per cent, was a divided Congress with Democrats running the House and Republicans keeping the Senate. The Silver Bulletin polling average, updated on Monday, had Democrats ahead by 8.8 points on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress.
“Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September still hasn’t stopped,” the Silver Bulletin said. Trump’s own numbers offer his party little cover. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted from September 30 to October 2 found 39 per cent of Americans approved of his job performance and 61 per cent disapproved.
On inflation, only 29 per cent approved and 71 per cent disapproved. The Senate is far less certain. The Cook Political Report rates seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of those seats are held by Republicans. A Democratic House would give the party subpoena power and committee gavels.
House Democrats are preparing “a vast oversight agenda” covering Trump, his family and his administration, US media said. London-based think tank Chatham House said Democrats’ real leverage would be on money, even if they took only the House.
The US debt limit is expected to be reached by mid-2027, and a Democratic House alone would rule out Republicans using the budget reconciliation process to raise it, Max Yoeli, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, wrote last month. Yoeli also cautioned that opposition on foreign policy “will be more about optics than hard constraints”, since Democrats would lack the votes to override presidential vetoes.
For India, that points to a Democratic House making its mark mostly through oversight rather than new law. Trump’s tariffs have largely been imposed through executive action. A Democratic House could hold hearings and force votes on them, but would struggle to overturn them against a veto.
The same applies to the Graham Act tariffs on top buyers of Russian energy, which could take effect from October 18. The law requires the administration to send Congress a written justification at least 10 days before imposing such duties, a requirement that a Democratic-led House would be well placed to press.
Any India-US trade agreement that needs legislation would also face a more sceptical chamber. The $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions, which falls heavily on Indian professionals, is already tied up in court. A federal judge in California blocked its enforcement on September 30, and the administration has appealed to the Ninth Circuit. Democrats could add hearings and spending riders to that legal fight.
Indian nationals have historically accounted for the largest share of H-1B beneficiaries. The four Indian-American members seeking re-election to the House, Ro Khanna, Ami Bera, Pramila Jayapal and Suhas Subramanyam, all Democrats, are in races rated safe for their party.
The current House has six Indian-American members. Raja Krishnamoorthi gave up his seat to run for the Senate and lost the Illinois primary, while Shri Thanedar lost his Michigan primary in August. The House has 435 voting members, and a party needs 218 seats for a majority. All House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on November 3.
IANS