Through five weeks, we’re 11-3 on Colts props and 12-11 overall. We’ve got a pretty good pulse on this Indianapolis offense, and we’re looking to keep climbing further into the plus column.
With Ashton Dulin out, Alec Pierce on IR and Tyler Warren questionable, Indianapolis should lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor. However, Tennessee ranks eighth in both run defense and tackling grades via PFF, making this matchup tougher than it looks.
Taylor has scored three touchdowns in each of his last three meetings with Tennessee, and his ability to control the game could dictate how nearly every prop on this card plays out.
Let's get into my five best bets for Sunday.
Game Total Under 44.5 (-108)
Tennessee has scored just 58 points through five games, the fewest in football, while allowing only 109, the ninth fewest in football.
Daniel Jones has thrown just three touchdown passes this season, and with Indianapolis’ receiving corps depleted, I expect Shane Steichen to lean on Taylor and try to control this game.
Even if the Colts put a decent amount of points on the board, I don’t trust Tennessee’s offense enough to push this total over.
Jonathan Taylor Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-112)
Taylor has cleared this number in three of his last four games, with the only miss coming last week when Pittsburgh held him to 15 carries for 45 yards.
He is averaging 20.2 carries per game and has a 29-carry performance against Tennessee on his résumé. With the passing attack this thin, I expect Indianapolis to get Taylor involved early and often.
Spencer Shrader Over 1.5 Field Goals (-159)
I’ve said it all season: we’re riding this line until the wheels fall off. Shrader has cleared it in four straight games, is 16-for-16 on field goals this season and just drilled five against Pittsburgh.
This offense continues to stall enough in scoring territory to give him opportunities. Until the books force us off it, I’m staying right here.
Tony Pollard Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-113)
Pollard has cleared 12.5 yards on his longest rush in four of five games this season and eight of his last 10.
Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most yards per carry to running backs, and Pollard’s interior-heavy rushing style attacks one of the weakest areas of this Colts defense.
I like his chances of breaking off at least one substantial run against Indianapolis.
Elic Ayomanor Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Ayomanor has cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games and in both career matchups against Indianapolis, finishing with 38 and 52 yards in those meetings.
The Colts secondary remains attackable, and at just 15.5 yards, one decent completion can nearly cash this by itself.
This entire card revolves around Taylor. If he controls the game, the under gets a boost, Shrader should keep seeing chances and Tennessee’s overall volume shrinks.
Good luck, and bet responsibly.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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