BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Azerbaijan's GDP is projected to reach 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion) in 2030, while the non-oil-gas sector's share of GDP is expected to rise to 82%.
This was reflected in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework released by the Ministry of Finance for the next 4 years.
According to forecasts, GDP is expected to reach 141 billion manat ($82.9 billion) by the end of 2027, including non-oil-gas GDP of 109.1 billion manat ($64.2 billion). By 2030, these figures are expected to increase to 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion) and 138.6 billion manat ($81.5 billion), respectively.
Over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected to average 3.3% annually, while non-oil-gas GDP is expected to grow by an average of 4.4%.
According to forecasts, GDP, which amounted to 129.1 billion manat ($75.9 billion) in 2025, will reach 138 billion manat ($81.2 billion) in 2026, 141 billion manat ($82.9 billion) in 2027, 147.6 billion manat ($86.8 billion) in 2028, and 158.4 billion manat ($93.2 billion) in 2029. This figure is expected to reach 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion) in 2030.
Non-oil-gas GDP is projected to increase from 92.3 billion manat ($54.3 billion) in 2025 to 100 billion manat ($58.8 billion) in 2026, 109.1 billion manat ($64.2 billion) in 2027, 118.3 billion manat ($69.6 billion) in 2028, 128.1 billion manat ($75.4 billion) in 2029, and 138.6 billion manat ($81.5 billion) in 2030.
The share of the oil and gas sector in GDP is expected to decline over the medium term. However, it is anticipated that production will increase from 2029 onwards, driven by the full-capacity operation of the Absheron field, thereby making a positive contribution to the sector's development.
Under the baseline scenario, the average annual export price of a barrel of oil is assumed to be $65 in 2027, remaining at this level through 2028–2030.
Furthermore, investments in fixed capital are projected to grow by 2.4% in 2027, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2% over the medium term. An increase in capital investment directed toward the oil and gas sector is expected during 2027–2028.
The forecast for fixed capital investments takes into account the investment plans of key entities within the oil and gas sector, state budget capital expenditures, reconstruction efforts in the liberated territories, targets for attracting foreign direct investment into the non-oil and gas sector, and the expansion of public-private partnerships in infrastructure projects. According to the Ministry of Economy’s estimates, the average annual inflation, projected at 5.7% for the current year under the baseline scenario, is expected to gradually decline, reaching 4.3% by 2030. This forecast takes into account the dynamics of commodity and food prices in global markets, impacts on import prices, fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rate index, the assumption that the exchange rate will remain stable, and adjustments to the tariffs for regulated goods and services.
Over the medium term, household incomes and expenditures are also expected to increase. In 2030, household incomes are projected to reach 137 billion manat ($80.6 billion), while expenditures are expected to total 134.1 billion manat ($78.9 billion).