Morgan Scalley's first year as head coach of the Utah Utes has them in the top 10 of the AP Top 25. This was the sixth time in the last 20 years they have reached the top end of the poll.

That achievement came in a season where outsiders believed this would be a regression or a rebuild year. Scalley is Utah’s first head coach since Kyle Whittingham, who left after 21 years. It is logically understandable that pundits would believe Utah would take a step back.

Utah is tied for first place in the Big 12 conference on the strength of a 6-0 start, 3-0 in the conference. Utah’s early-season success is not as much about who they have beaten, but how they have beat them.

Utah is averaging 40.2 points per game, while the defense is holding teams to 14.8 points per game. It’s not that they are winning games. Utah often wins games. It’s the dominance in which they are doing so. However, the back half of the schedule is more daunting than that first half, with three ranked teams yet to be played.

Schedule math puts Utah in an advantageous position

A classic folk joke applies here to Utah. “You don’t have to run faster than the bear, you just have to run faster than the guy next to you,” commonly attributed to fiction writer Jim Butcher. That sums up the Big 12 conference title race the Utes currently face.

There is a three-horse race at the top between No. 10 Utah, No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 2 BYU. There is a strongly held belief that this season will see two Big 12 teams in the College Football Playoff. The preferred way to get there is by winning the Big 12 conference and earning a first-round bye.

Only two teams can face off in the conference title game, which means someone in the top 3 will be left out. BYU and Texas Tech only have one remaining ranked opponent. Compared to Utah who has three. BYU’s lone ranked opponent will be Utah on November 7 in the highly anticipated 2026 installment of the Holy War rivalry. Texas Tech only has No. 25 Arizona left.

The Holy War will be important. Win that game and it would give BYU their first loss and could turn this into a two-horse race. Even if Utah does not win that game, they are in a good position. If Texas Tech slips up somewhere. Oklahoma State has a Heisman trophy candidate in Drew Mestemaker, Baylor can play better than expected and Arizona is improving.

Utah needs to control their own destiny as best as they can. That begins by playing their remaining ranked opponents the same way they have their unranked opponents. Playing an attacking style of offense and stingy defense. Wins against Houston and Arizona would strengthen their case. If they can win out, a win over BYU almost assuredly puts them in the Big 12 championship game.

Regardless of who wins the conference, there are likely to be two Big 12 teams in the Playoff. Beat BYU, and they just have to be better than Texas Tech. Even if they play BYU close and don’t get the result they desire, they can still make the playoff field by being better than Texas Tech.

Utah faces the first of their ranked opponents this week. When they welcome No. 14 Houston to Salt Lake City on Saturday night. The game will air on ESPN with kickoff scheduled at 10:15 p.m. ET.