YARDLEY, Pennsylvania — Republican Brian Fitzpatrick sailed to reelection in Pennsylvania’s first congressional district two years ago. But now, with just over three weeks to go until Election Day and public opinion continuing to sour on Donald Trump’s presidency, Democrats smell blood in the water.
Their optimism that Fitzpatrick’s Democratic opponent, Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie, can defeat the five-term incumbent was on display on Saturday afternoon, as Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries and Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro hit the campaign trail in the leafy Philadelphia suburbs to drum up support for Harvie.
“A lot of people look at this race and think, ‘Well, this is not really one that Democrats can win,’” Harvie told POLITICO after a rally in a middle school gym in Lower Bucks County, where supporters waved red signs emblazoned with the slogan: “Fire Fitz.”
“Clearly they are wrong because Leader Jeffries thinks we can win it,” Harvie said. “Governor Shapiro thinks we can win it.”
Jeffries’ decision to campaign alongside Harvie in the final stretch underscores Democrats’ growing bullishness heading into next month’s midterms, when they aim to retake control of the House of Representatives and usher in a 2018-style “blue wave.”
But it also illustrates the potentially risky bets party operatives are willing to place in the final stretch of campaigning, as they deploy relatively thin resources to try and expand their electoral map, including in districts that were previously seen as out of reach.
In recent days, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has committed to spending $900,000 in its bid to unseat Fitzpatrick. House Majority PAC, the House Democrats' main super PAC, has spent more than $6 million to reserve television advertisements in the race, according to the latest AdImpact data.
“We are running through the finish line,” Jeffries told reporters after Saturday’s rally. “We take nothing for granted, but we are on the verge of taking back control of the House of Representatives.”
Democratic operatives in the state insist Harvie is within striking distance of flipping the district, which spans all of Bucks County and a sliver of Montgomery County in the affluent Philadelphia suburbs.
A new internal poll conducted last week by Democratic pollsters Global Strategy Group found Harvie and Fitzpatrick tied, 46%-46%, among likely voters, with 8% still undecided.
In a memo first seen by POLITICO, the pollsters argued undecided swing voters would be more likely to break for Harvie in the final weeks of campaigning, noting 60% of undecideds said they would prefer Democrats take back control of Congress.
Still, Democratic leaders acknowledge that even in an increasingly favorable political environment for their party, the odds may be stacked against Harvie.
Separate internal polling commissioned by the Fitzpatrick campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee last month showed Fitzpatrick leading Harvie by a 9-point margin. And despite the last-minute cash injection from national Democrats in the district, Fitzpatrick has long enjoyed a sizable fundraising advantage. The latest quarterly Federal Election Commission filings showed Fitzpatrick’s campaign spent nearly $5 million on the race in the first six months of the year alone.
"Bob [Harvie] is running a great campaign. Brian [Fitzpatrick] is running a tough campaign,” Shapiro told POLITICO at a separate stop with Democratic Party volunteers earlier on Saturday. “This is one that is going to be really close."
Fitzpatrick, a former FBI special agent who was first elected to Congress in 2016, is widely seen as a strong candidate in Bucks County, a perennial electoral battleground at the presidential level that Shapiro has repeatedly described as the “swingiest county in the swingiest state in the whole country.”
In 2024, Trump won the county over Kamala Harris by a razor-thin margin of roughly 500 votes. But the first congressional district broke narrowly for Harris, meaning the roughly 13-point win by Fitzpatrick — who has long described himself as a “fiercely independent voice” for his district — outpaced the top of the Republican ticket by double digits.
Charlie Dent, a former Republican representative from the neighboring Lehigh Valley, described Fitzpatrick as a political “unicorn,” noting: “He has been able to establish a brand that is separate and independent from the president.”
That puts Fitzpatrick on firmer footing than many of his Republican colleagues across the country, who are contending with an electorate that largely disapproves of Trump’s leadership.
The Fitzpatrick campaign, which did not respond to POLITICO’s request for an interview, has consistently emphasized the representative’s bipartisan credentials, with television advertisements making little reference to the Republican Party or to Trump. The campaign and groups supporting Fitzpatrick have also run a series of negative ads attacking Harvie and accusing him of corruption. An NRCC spokesman told POLITICO Harvie had a "stagnant campaign, a significant cash disadvantage, and a disqualifying record of tax hikes and misuse of taxpayer resources." Harvie has denied any allegations of wrongdoing.
Yard signs scattered throughout the district bear slogans including “Brian Fitzpatrick For All of Us” and “Brian Fitzpatrick One Community,” while campaign-sponsored billboards tout his slate of endorsements from organizations not often associated with the Republican Party, including public sector unions, animal rights and environmental groups and gun safety advocates.
“Brian is his own political force,” said Christian Nascimento, a one-time Republican congressional candidate who was until earlier this year the chair of the Montgomery County Republican Committee. “I know Democrats that vote for him just because he is willing to cross the aisle and cooperate and compromise.”
But Democratic leaders reject the characterization. On Saturday, Rep. Madeleine Dean, who represents Pennsylvania’s fourth congressional district, said Fitzpatrick was “no moderate,” calling her Republican colleague “complicit in the grotesque chaos, corruption and cruelty of this administration.”
Jeffries similarly sought to tie Fitzpatrick to Trump, telling rally-goers: “A vote for the current congressman is a vote for the status quo. Bob Harvie, a vote for him is a vote to make Congress a check and balance on an out-of-control president.”
Jeffries, who stands to become speaker if Democrats win the House next month, is not the only Democratic leader who has expended political capital for Harvie.
Shapiro, who is widely expected to sail to reelection next month against a relatively weak Republican opponent in state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, has also stumped alongside Harvie, as well as other congressional candidates in Pennsylvania this year. Many political operatives see Shapiro’s involvement in the races as an effort to show proof of concept for his own leadership ahead of a possible presidential campaign in 2028.
“[Shapiro] identified the candidates very early on who he thought would be strongly positioned to flip these seats,” Jeffries told reporters on Saturday. “Bob Harvie was among those right at the top of the list.”
Asked about his involvement in congressional races on Saturday, Shapiro told POLITICO: "Success on election night isn't just about reelecting me, but making sure we are winning all the way down the ballot.”
Shapiro has not said publicly whether he intends to run for the White House. In a debate against Garrity last week, Shapiro sidestepped a question about whether he would commit to serve a full four-year term in Harrisburg if reelected, saying: “The only thing I am focused on is running for re-election as governor.”
A Quinnipiac University poll out last week showed Shapiro with a 25-point lead over Garrity. But asked on Saturday if Democrats risked being overconfident of their chances heading into election day, the governor responded: “I run every race like I am 25 points behind, and so I’m running taking nothing for granted.”
This article originally appeared on Politico at https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/11/brian-fitzpatrick-bob-harvie-pennsylvania-01115981