As a person of a certain age, this used to be bigger than Christmas.
Florida State and Miami put on some of the greatest shows in college football history (to this day, Miami’s 26-25 win over Florida State in 1987 is still my favorite game of all-time). And yes, even in 2026, these to bring something special when they play.
This isn’t one of those rivalries that defy logic and reason, like Oklahoma beating Texas last week in a Red River Rivalry that gets totally funky. But there are always interesting storylines surrounding these two.
Miami is trying to keep a dominant 2026 going with Notre Dame coming up in a few weeks, and Florida State is looking for another stunning performance like the 38-7 win over Virginia a few weeks ago.
It’s Florida State vs Miami. Something interesting will happen.
Florida State vs Miami: Quick Hits
- Miami gets Pitt home next before two massive road games at North Carolina and then the big one – Notre Dame.
- Florida State goes on the road for three games in the next four, with a week off before hosting Clemson.
- Miami was pushed in a 28-22 win last year and has won six of the last nine since losing 20-19 in 2016.
How To Watch Florida State vs Miami
Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
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Why Florida State Will Win
Florida State wins when it runs well.
The Seminoles also win when they score points and keep the other team from scoring points – duh, that’s how it’s supposed to work. The offense is great when it finds its groove on the ground – going 3-0 when coming up with more than 4.4 yards per carry – and that helps when the defense is doing its job, so the FSU passing game doesn’t have to press.
That won’t be easy, but if the Seminoles can pop a few early runs, that takes the pressure off everything else.
Why Miami Will Win
Florida State probably won’t get the ground game rolling like it needs to against the No. 1 run defense in college football.
The Noles were able to rumble from the start against Virginia, but they struggled against SMU, and they weren’t close to getting going in the losses to Alabama and Louisville.
Clemson can run at times, and so can Wake Forest, and they didn’t go anywhere. Miami has allowed 213 rushing yards on the year, giving up fewer than two yards per carry.
Florida State vs Miami Prediction, Betting Lines
Miami won’t get caught up in the emotion. It’ll step up the defense after the first ten minutes, and then Darian Mensah will go to work. The Miami star is hitting 84% of his passes, and he’s not going to force anything.
It’ll be a cold, mechanical performance by the Hurricanes without any real drama after starting to pull away in the third quarter.
Miami 40, Florida State 17
Latest Consensus Line: Miami -21.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 3.5
Must See Rating (out of 5): 3
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.