Wisconsin finds itself road underdogs once again after easily covering the spread in a blowout homecoming win over Michigan State in Week 5.
The Badgers, fresh of a bye week, now must face red-hot UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday evening as they look to remain perfect in conference play.
From the Bruins' upstart season to their quarterback situation, this game is high-stakes and rich with storylines. As Wisconsin looks to knock off another top-15 team on the road, here's my spread and over/under picks for Week 7, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread: UCLA -2.5
The initial spread was a touch higher, with the Bruins favored by 3.5 points. The news of Nico Iamaleava's season-ending injury brought it down, but not by much. As I've written before, UCLA's quarterback isn't going to matter nearly as much in this game, one I fully expect to be won and lost in the trenches.
This is the narrowest spread the Badgers have had all season; they're finally playing an opponent against whom Vegas at least perceives them to be evenly matched. And of course, UCLA must win by at least a field goal to cover.
This game could be a slugfest. This is a battle between two stout defenses backed by run-first offenses that simply want to impose their will. It's two very stubborn teams committed to playing their way, forcing their opponent to either match their physicality or crumble.
But with a spread this narrow, you can't outsmart yourself and think too situationally. This comes down to who you think is going to win the game. Badgers On SI's official staff predictions will drop Saturday morning, but when picking a spread this narrow, it's hard not to tip my hand as to who I think will emerge victorious.
Prediction: Wisconsin +2.5
Total: 43.5
This is an identical total to Wisconsin's previous game against Michigan State. I think the under looks quite appealing for the second straight week.
Again, I expect this to be a defensive rock fight, points to be at a premium, whatever cliche you want to use. These are two sturdy defenses, and it'll be fascinating to see where each bends and either does or doesn't break.
The Badgers have the better total defense, but UCLA is statistically stronger against the run while Wisconsin is statistically stronger against the pass. The Bruins have generated a handful more pressures and a whole lot more turnovers than the Badgers. Wisconsin has probably been stronger on a down-to-down basis, but UCLA has been more opportunistic and disruptive.
Regardless of who you think is going to win this game —and there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus either way — the under looks like a pretty safe bet. Not only are these two strong defenses, but both offense's commitment to the ground game promises to drain the clock and limit possessions. A few flukey turnovers that set up short fields could change that, but I don't see that stopping this from being a low-scoring, trench warefare-esque game.
Prediction: Under 43.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Add us as a preferred source on Google