Israel’s voters seem more tired than engaged by crucial election

JERUSALEM – Two weeks before what is widely considered Israel’s most consequential election in decades, its streets are surprisingly empty of rallies and campaign posters, with voters seemingly more exhausted than engaged.

For a society that a few years ago saw hundreds of thousands pack central squares weekly to protest the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the listlessness is noteworthy. 

“It’s the most significant election since 1949 and the most lacklustre existential moment that I can recall,” said Yossi Klein Halevi, author of several books on Israel and a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, a Jerusalem think tank. 

“Israelis are tired after three years of war,” he said. “They also know that the war isn’t over, that whoever wins will have to fight its next stage. It makes it hard to generate excitement for the future.”

The Oct 27 election will be the first since Hamas militants attacked Israel three years ago, killing 1,200, abducting 250 and triggering a brutal war in Gaza that the territory’s health ministry says killed at least 70,000 Palestinians.

Israel has since waged further battles against Iran and groups it backs in Lebanon and Syria.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been called up for military service and many have spent months in uniform, away from family and work.

The Oct 7, 2023 attack inspired patriotic unity, but as Hamas held on to hostages in Gaza, fissures opened, with some blaming the government for not prioritsing their freedom over combat.

In addition, Netanyahu’s ruling coalition includes ultra-Orthodox parties who’ve traded their votes for keeping their young men out of military service, an issue that has infuriated most of the rest of the country.

This combination of issues could be expected to inspire an impassioned opposition to make its case and get out the vote.

But that’s happening far less than many expected, although pollsters say opposition supporters will vote in large – perhaps record – numbers. 

While a Channel 12 poll on Oct 12 had the opposition bloc winning 54 seats to Netanyahu’s 49, other surveys have been much closer and neither side is expected to secure a clear majority to form a government.

That’s another possible factor in keeping enthusiasm low, since it could require complex negotiations or even another election to deliver a decisive outcome.

The opposition’s main candidate is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who has pledged to lead a more transparent government.

He is positioning himself as a self-effacing contrast to the high-profile Netanyahu, a global figure who has been in office longer than anyone in Israeli history. 

“You’d expect to see Eisenkot in the centre of Tel Aviv with tens of thousands of people expressing a desperate desire for change,” said Yoel Esteron, who founded business daily Calcalist. “But he’s not a charismatic candidate and does small events.”

He also noted that a lot more campaigning is done on social media than in previous eras. 

Shmuel Rosner, who produces analysis and polling for Channel 13, said the low-key campaigns may be a result of most people having long ago deciding which bloc they support, with little movement between them. 

While cars lack bumper stickers and billboards are fewer, television and radio debate has been vigorous and intense.

Oded Ben Ami, who anchors an evening news broadcast on Channel 12, said he believes some things will change if Eisenkot wins: a commission of inquiry for Oct 7, term limits for prime ministers and an attempt to address the ultra-Orthodox conscription issue. 

But Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Gaza and the West Bank, not to mention education and transportation – add up to a mountain of challenges.

Amalia Rosenblum, a Tel Aviv psychologist, when asked why the opposition energy seemed so low, referred to a concept known as learned helplessness – when people stop trying to escape an unpleasant situation because past experiences have taught them their actions have no impact.

“Those who packed the streets a few years ago feel increasingly that they can’t move the needle,” she said.

“Even if they win, it’s like having a disease and being prescribed medicine. You take it but it doesn’t exactly make you excited.” BLOOMBERG