Big picture: Tri-series moves on to Lahore leg
As this tri-series moves to Pakistan's cricketing power centre in Lahore, there is a clear divergence between what the country's most-fervent crowd wants and what the tournament needs. Victory for the home side risks qualification for the final being decided well before the end of the group stage. It would secure Pakistan's place in next Saturday's final, putting England on the cusp of elimination after what would be a third straight ODI defeat.
A tri-series can, however, turn on a dime. No side is yet guaranteed a final berth, even if Pakistan fly into this game off the back of two convincing wins - both achieved in impressive defences of below-par totals after losing the toss. They need one win in their next two games not to leave them sweating on the outcome of the group stage's final game between England and Sri Lanka.
Especially since the game just gone between those two demonstrated you can never quite tell what to expect. A punch-drunk England reel into this game off the back of an epic failure to defend 429, the second worst defence of a total in ODI cricket history. Their attempt at a chase in their opening game against Pakistan wasn't much flashier either after they squandered a stellar start by the openers to lose 7 for 50 and fold forlornly for 215 and an 87-run defeat.
Harry Brook, whose 202 on Thursday made him the only double-centurion in ODI cricket to end up on the losing side, found his captaincy under scrutiny against Pakistan earlier this tournament, but against Sri Lanka, he could do less about his bowlers' ordinary execution. No pace bowler truly managed to keep a lid on Sri Lanka's onslaught at the death. Sam Curran, who has of late been soft-launched as a batting rather than bowling ODI allrounder, was nonetheless called upon to bowl nine overs, only to end up conceding 103. Adil Rashid's exclusion was a surprise despite a recent drop-off in form, highlighted only further by England's failed defence.
Pakistan, for once, have the rare luxury of going into a game where they aren't the crisis team, and the attention isn't squarely upon them. So far, the men in green have done their job fairly clinically, and with very little drama accompanying them. They will instead wear pink for this gsame, with the ODI dedicated to breast cancer awareness. It is, however, their opponents who currently look a pale hue of their best self.
Form guide
Pakistan: WWWLW (last five completed matches, most recent first) England: LLWLW
In the spotlight: Saim Ayub and Tom Banton
Saim Ayub the T20 bowler might be able to justify his slot despite a precipitous loss of batting form, but the same is getting harder to say in ODIs. Mike Hesson's admiration for Ayub's high-ceiling and his penchant for allrounders has seen him demonstrate an almost legendary level of patience but, at some point, a batter must actually score runs. It is felt especially keenly when the freefall isn't cushioned by impactful bowling figures; in the two matches this tri-series, his 15 runs with bat in hand have been complemented only by 10 wicketless overs that leaked 61 runs.
Tom Banton is enjoying an especially productive late summer. His last four ODIs have yielded three half-centuries and a hundred, with this purple patch extending into the tri-series. He scored half-centuries in each of England's two games, but found himself unable to drive home that advantage once set. That was especially keenly felt against Pakistan, when his wicket heralded the start of England's collapse. England will require his clean hitting to offer a more substantial contribution on Lahore's similarly flat surfaces.
Team news: Rashid back in for England?
Pakistan are unlikely to want to tinker with the winning combination they have struck upon, even if there remains room for improvement.
Pakistan: (possible) 1 Saim Ayub, 2 Fakhar Zaman, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Saad Baig (wk), 5 Salman Agha, 6 Hasan Nawaz, 7 Arafat Minhas, 8 Faheem Ashraf, 9 Shaheen Afridi (capt), 10 Naseem Shah, 11 Haris Rauf
Rashid's benching was perhaps the biggest talking point from England's defeat against Sri Lanka. Conceding 430 underlined that it didn't quite have the desired effect. It would not be a surprise to see him bounce immediately back in, although Brook defended Liam Dawson as his best bowler on Thursday night.
England: (possible) 1 Tom Banton, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Joe Root, 4 Harry Brook (capt), 5 Will Jacks, 6 Sam Curran, 7 Jordan Cox (wk), 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Gus Atkinson, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Josh Tongue
Pitch and conditions: Some respite for bowlers?
This is the first ODI of the home season at the Gaddafi. Lahore offers bigger boundaries than Rawalpindi, and while the ground has been relatively batting-friendly over the past few years, it does not quite provide the same bounty. The forecasts predict a warm sunny day, though an unexpected hailstorm on the eve of the game sent groundstaff scrambling to cover the square. Those covers, however, were rolled back soon after and training went ahead as scheduled.
Stats and trivia
- Shaheen Afridi is one wicket away from becoming the eighth Pakistani fast bowler to take 150 ODI wickets.
- England have won just two of eight matches they have played at the Gaddafi Stadium, their wins coming in 1987 and 2005.
Quotes
"We're not interested in the number of runs the other side scored in the previous game, whether it's 400 or 500. What we're focused on is how to restrict a team to 250, and our bowling is capable enough to do it."
Shaheen Afridi remains unfazed by England's batting prowess
"Like any touring side, these are foreign conditions and you have to work your way into each individual match. Just because we've had two losses doesn't immediately mean we're a bad team."
Will Jacks is confident England can still work their way back into this tri-series
Danyal Rasool is Cricinfo's Pakistan correspondent. @Danny61000