Bo Nix hasn't looked right since the 2026 season began.
The Denver Broncos' third-year quarterback has looked hesitant, as if he's either unsure of what he's seeing or afraid of getting hit. Turns out, fear has played a big role in Nix's funk, and much of it stems from his ankle injury.
Based on what NFL insider James Palmer posted on X this week, that fear is twofold. Palmer has deep connections to the Broncos front office, and his long X post offered quite a few gleanings into what the team believes is going on with Nix.
Let's examine what Palmer had to say, starting with the root cause of Nix's slump: the fear factor.
Playing Not to Lose
Nix seems to be afraid of getting hit and turning the ball over. It's easy to see that he's still carrying some anxiety over his ankle, but instead of that play-to-win mindset that helped him win 24 games in his first two seasons as a starter, he now seems to be focusing too much on playing not to lose.
"My understanding is there is a difference with Nix in 2026, where Nix is focused on not losing the game more than winning the game. Don't turn the ball over," Palmer wrote. "Don't be the reason why we lose the game. That's kind of manifested in his mind to the point that the conservative approach has become an issue on the field."
Despite having a Pro Bowl wide receiver — Courtland Sutton — who Nix has targeted 287 times since 2024, a two-time Pro Bowl tight end — Evan Engram — and a dynamic new weapon the Broncos paid dearly to acquire — Jaylen Waddle — the young quarterback leads the NFL in passes behind the line of scrimmage. That's great for PPR fantasy owners who drafted running back RJ Harvey, but it's bad news for the Broncos' offense.
Nix won't push the ball vertically, nor will he target the middle of the field. As Warren Sharp noted on X, 63% of Nix's passes have been outside the numbers, the most in the NFL, but his 6.0 yards per attempt on those throws rank 32nd in the NFL.
Fear is a powerul motivator. But you miss 100% of the shots you don't take. Pardon the cliche.
All opponents have to do is keep the two-high shell to dissuade Nix from throwing deep, swarm the boundary, and they can bottle up the Broncos' offense. Clearly, he's hesitant to throw inside, and that's allowing opponents to easily predict what he'll do.
Middle-of-the-field avoidance has been a flaw in Nix's game since he entered the league, but he's taken it to a whole new level this season. It's a big reason why Sutton is on pace for a career-low year and why Waddle has just 228 receiving yards thus far.
Don't Be Afraid to Run
Palmer reports that Nix's ankle is "fine," and while the Broncos understand that recovering from a serious injury can take time, they want to see him take a big hit so he can get back to his feet and realize that he's okay. That could also help Nix be more assertive with his legs.
"The Broncos want Nix to run it more and they're seeing a player that is a bit gun-shy right now," Palmer wrote. "If you look at the runs that Denver has dialed up, a lot of them he's looking for the sidelines and he's looking for a way to get down as soon as possible. He's not looking for the extra yards or the needed yards in key situations. It's been frustrating."
Nix has definitely looked far more reluctant to use his legs this season. But his mobility has always been a big part of his game and the threat he presents to defenses, and his newfound timidity has removed that from the equation this season.
When it comes to off-schedule throws, Nix has never been on a Patrick Mahomes level, but it's always been one of his strong suits — until this season. This season, when Nix breaks the pocket, he's looked anxious and unpoised, leading to fewer rushing yards and fewer big off-schedule completions.
Nix looks uncomfortable, even when the Broncos' offensive line gives him clean pockets. He's bailing on pockets way early, which not only sabatoges the routes in the play-call, but it puts him on the move where, as we just discussed, he's not playing with poise and seeing the field.
Jumpy in the Pocket
It sounds like the Broncos are frustrated with Nix's reluctance to use his legs. And per Palmer, that fear his injury created has much to do with his sketchy pocket presence.
"This plays a part in the drifting or escaping out of clean pockets, I'm told. This has always been an issue with him his whole career, but this year it's more exaggerated and impacting a passing game where WRs are open," Palmer wrote. "Nix oftentimes is on the move before even the first read gets to the top of their route. The play designs have some longer development downfield, so this is a bad combination right now."
Nix isn't giving his receivers the time they need to run the route and get open. He's bailing on clean pockets, and while he's called it "hero-ball," it basically cuts the field in half and reduces the Broncos' offense to a slapdash backyard football exercise.
Payton Wants Nix to 'Let 'Er Rip'
Sean Payton and the Broncos' coaches are working to coax Nix out of this shell. Following the Broncos' Week 5 win over the Chargers, Payton said at the podium that he wants Nix to "let 'er rip."
Nix took that to mean "trust what you see." But we didn't see a change in his performance on Thursday night.
Against the Seattle Seahawks four days later, we saw Nix uncork two downfield passes, neither of which were complete, although one of them drew a defensive pass interference penalty that set the Broncos up on the 1-yard line. From there, though, the Seahawks just kept deploying the two-high shell over the top, and dared Nix to throw underneath; when he did, they'd swarm and tackle.
The Broncos went 3-of-14 on third down against Seattle because of this and an inability to get the run game going. It has all dovetailed into a world of suck for the Broncos' offense.
If Nix can get back to trusting his eyes and O-line, everything becomes possible. Per Palmer, Nix is too spooked out there.
"Nix is seeing ghosts at times," Palmer wrote.
The Takeaway
Payton made it clear on Monday that the Broncos aren't considering making a change at quarterback. Nix is 18-3 in his last 21 starts. No team benches a quarterback with a .700 winning percentage.
But Palmer reports that the Broncos are "concerned." That being said, based on Nix's 30-game sample size as an NFL starter, the Broncos believe they have plenty to draw on to help get him back on the horse.
That brutal six-game schedule has played a much bigger role in Nix's failure to launch this year than most people realize. Now that the Broncos are through it — navigating that gauntlet with a 4-2 record — I think we're going to start seeing Nix loosen up a little bit.
This is a guy who's always at his best when the chips are down and the pressure is the highest. All it might take is one big game to shake the cobwebs off and get Nix back to playing like his pre-injury self.
The schedule opens up now, starting with this week's road trip to take on the Arizona Cardinals. There's a lot of season left to be played, and Nix has proven to be one of the NFL's best finishers.
He may not have started on the right foot, but if past outcomes are the best predictor of future outcomes, I fully expect Nix to finish strong.
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